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某研究机构说-2012澳洲房价继续下行

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1#
发表于 7-9-2011 13:01:06 | 只看该作者 回帖奖励 |倒序浏览 |阅读模式

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由于担忧中国经济发展掉头,以及二次经济危机。。。某研究机构预测澳几大城市,如Melbourne, Brisbane和Perth等,将继续引领房价下跌。。。

While an economic catastrophe in China or a second credit crunch could spark massive falls in Australian home values, it's more likely that prices will continue their orderly decline into next year as wary buyers stay out of a falling market, says a new report.

Louis Christopher, managing director of SQM Research, predicts that by June 2012 home prices in Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth will be as much as 15 per cent below their 2010 peaks, assuming no rate change from the Reserve Bank. Sydney's outlook is more positive.

"If rates are left on hold, house prices are likely to keep falling well into 2012 with no market bottom until at least the middle of the year," Mr Christopher said in a report from SQM, a property research group.
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The group estimates that one rate cut could halt the decline in house prices. Brisbane and Perth house prices had dropped about 6 per cent so far this year, according to SQM, while Canberra's house prices were essentially flat. Sydney houses were down 2 per cent while Melbourne's had fallen by about 5 per cent so far in 2011.

The Reserve Bank kept rates on hold yesterday for the 10th consecutive month, pointing to a clouded view on local and growth growth prospects.

"A key question will be the extent to which softer global and domestic growth will work, in due course, to contain inflation," RBA governor Glenn Stevens said in yesterday's statement on monetary policy.

SQM said the catalyst for a house price crash could take the form of higher interest rates, slower growth triggered by weakening demand for Australian commodities from China, or a massive over supply of new housing stock. In another possibility, bank failures overseas could cause a credit crunch similar to the one in 2007-08, driving up loans costs and cutting their availability, sending prices lower.

"It is, however, important to note that one trigger could bring on another," Mr Christopher said, giving the example of a slowdown in China, which could see unemployment jump from its current 5.1 per cent.

Analysts will get a clearer picture of the overall health of the economy when second quarter growth figures are released today, with analysts predicting a rebound of 1 per cent in the gross domestic product, following a 1.2 per cent contraction in the first quarter of 2011, following the Queensland floods.

Although SQM said homes prices were "overvalued" in some cities, it did not expect a house price crash at the national level, "just modest price falls for houses in most cities".

To date, the median national city home price has lost 3.4 per cent in value according to RP Data-Rismark.

As a result, activity in the housing market has cooled but signs of life remain. Home loans increased by a lower-than-expected 1 per cent in July, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. But the weaker pace of growth in the sector has the banks tipping flat or lower house prices for some time come.

Of the capital cities, Sydney stood out as a being on track for house price growth of between zero and 4 per cent by the end of 2012, factoring in no rate change, SQM said. Melbourne prices are tipped to drop between 5 and 7 per cent over the same period. Brisbane's prices are expected to sink between 4 and 7 per cent, while Perth's are expected to drop between 2 and 4 per cent.

Melbourne and Brisbane homes hit their peak prices in June 2010, while Perth's were at their highest in March 2010, SQM said.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/h ... .html#ixzz1XEAXpwky
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2#
发表于 7-9-2011 14:21:09 | 只看该作者
全球已经进入二次危机了吧?澳洲的房子快降吧,大家都有大耗子住了
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3#
发表于 7-9-2011 14:32:43 | 只看该作者
可惜每次預測的都跟事實相反
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4#
发表于 7-9-2011 15:11:38 | 只看该作者
不要啊,买涨不买跌。
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5#
 楼主| 发表于 7-9-2011 15:23:21 | 只看该作者

回复 #3 aareon 的帖子

全球的砖家都是一个老师培训的?
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6#
发表于 7-9-2011 17:21:19 | 只看该作者
今天看到报纸说first home buyer 接下来很快就没有免印花税了。。
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7#
发表于 7-9-2011 17:34:25 | 只看该作者
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8#
发表于 7-9-2011 17:40:26 | 只看该作者
我更期待降息呢。。。
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9#
发表于 7-9-2011 21:01:21 | 只看该作者
我绝对是买跌不买涨,俺说的是自己住的房子。
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10#
发表于 7-9-2011 22:49:43 | 只看该作者

回复 #8 sunnyclh1211 的帖子

期待大幅度的降息就是期待经济的恶化。。想清楚了
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11#
发表于 7-9-2011 22:58:29 | 只看该作者
澳洲政客可不认为澳洲经济不好,我怀疑四万买了澳元多头!
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12#
发表于 8-9-2011 13:33:57 | 只看该作者
今天看中文地产报纸,头版大标题“澳洲房市危机不远”,内容写着:“每年新屋的基本需求量是17.5万套,而如今的实际需求量远没有那么多。房市危机离我们不远了。”

但是,翻到下个版面,又一个标题“住宅供应极度短缺将导致西澳房价上扬”

西澳的发展前景肿么好么,大家都跑来了~~~
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