Taking into account all the recent information, the path for inflation may now be more consistent with the 2–3 per cent target in 2012 and 2013, abstracting from the impact of the carbon pricing scheme. This assessment will be reviewed on receipt of further data on prices ahead of the Board's next meeting. An improved inflation outlook would increase the scope for monetary policy to provide some support to demand, should that prove necessary.
The Board noted that financial conditions have been easing somewhat, with interest rates for some housing and business loans declining slightly due to increased competition and the fall in some funding costs in financial markets. The exchange rate has also declined from the very high levels of a few months ago. Credit growth remains low, however, and asset prices have declined.
The shift in the RBA's view is best illustrated by noting the evolution of how the RBA has qualified its statement that medium-term Australian growth will be strong.
-- In July, the RBA said that "Over the medium term, overall growth is still likely to be at trend or higher, if the world economy grows as expected." It didn't.
-- In August, the RBA said that "Over the medium term, overall growth is still likely to be at trend or higher, unless the world economy deteriorates noticeably." It did.
-- Then in September, the RBA amended this to: "Beyond the near term, growth is still likely to be at trend or higher, unless the world economic outlook continues to deteriorate." It has.
发表于 4-10-2011 13:54:22
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发表于 4-10-2011 19:31:59
