澳洲央行维持利率在2.5%不变

周星星1832

THERE'S not going to be a rate cut on Tuesday and borrowers can blame another surge in mining investment.

All 13 economists surveyed by AAP said the Reserve Bank on Australia (RBA) would not reduce the cash rate at its March 5 board meeting, but nine of those expect a rate cut some time in the next six months.

On Wednesday, money markets were pricing in a 33 per cent chance of a March rate cut but by Friday that had fallen to a 17 per cent chance.

So what changed?

On Thursday, official figures showed businesses were planning to increase their investment spending this financial year and the next.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics said its fifth estimate of capital expenditure (capex) for this financial year was four per cent higher than for the previous financial year.

Those figures allayed concerns that the boom in mining investment was coming to an end, concerns sparked by large fall in commodity prices in 2012 that caused some of Australia's biggest mining to shelve some projects.

HSBC Australia chief economist Paul Bloxham said the capex figures showed there was a lot of investment in the pipeline that would stimulate the economy for months to come.

"Even the forward-looking capital expenditure survey, which some feared could deliver bad news, was generally positive overall," he said.

The RBA delivered four interest rate cuts in calendar year 2012, taking the cash rate to three per cent by December.

Mr Bloxham said the surge in business investment should give these rate cuts time to take effect on the economy.

"The continued rise in mining investment, as (the building of) large LNG (liquefied natural gas) projects continue, should support growth, which should give the RBA more time to see the impact on the non-mining sectors of the cuts it has already delivered," he said.

Commonwealth Bank chief economist Michael Blythe said the capex figures showed the peak in mining investment would be more of a plateau.

He said spending on the building of new mines and resource projects as a percentage of economic growth was expected to remain constant in the coming financial year.

"The latest capex data lowered market expectations of a near-term RBA rate cut," Mr Blythe said.

"More importantly, the rollover in mining capex that has worried the RBA looks quite muted.

"The data indicated that capex growth in 2012/13 will be lower than earlier estimates but initial readings on 2013/14 confirm that total capex is holding up."

St George economist Janu Chan said there won't be a cash rate cut in March but expects one in April.

"We think there's room for one more rate cut given that inflation's quite subdued, growth is expected to be below trend this year, and also the labour markets remain quite soft," she said.

"There is room for at least one more, but we don't think given recent commentary the RBA's not ready to cut rates as soon as next week.

"There is enough evidence to suggest that the RBA will want to wait and see given that there's perhaps just enough of an impact from earlier rate cuts to the economy."

周星星1832

降息

MICHELLE07

We don't think given recent commentary the RBA's not ready to cut rates as soon as next week
够晦涩的

duhaha

看来不会降，唉！

duhaha

看来不会降，唉！

荷塘月色

这两天高吗~没注意看~

周星星1832

本报讯）根据最新公布的数据，澳洲2月份的招聘广告数量飙增至三年最高水平，支持了澳洲劳动力市场已来到拐角处。　　澳盛银行(ANZ)周一(3月3日)公布的数据显示，澳洲2月季调后ANZ总招聘广告月率跳涨5.1%，前值下降0.3%。自去年年中以来，ANZ的招聘广告数据就开始逐渐改善。
　　ANZ招聘数据较前值大幅上涨，或暗示澳洲就业市场有所改善。此前因采矿业繁荣逐渐降温，澳洲就业市场一直表现疲软。因此此次数据大幅度改善能否持续还取决于后续经济数据表现。
　　ANZ的数据还显示，澳洲2月季调后ANZ报纸招聘广告月率下沉0.5%，前值锐减1.4%；澳洲2月季调后ANZ网络招聘广告月率劲增5.3%，前值减少0.2%。
　　乍一看，ANZ的数据与官方数据完全不相符，澳洲统计局（ABS）此前公布，去年年底的失业率达到十年最高——6%。不过招聘广告数据通常被认为是指示未来工人需求的一个重要指标。
　　ANZ的经济学家Justin Fabo表示，若近来招聘广告改善的势头能够持续，那么今年的经济有可能将逐渐加速增长。他说：“处于历史最低水平的利率以及走软的澳币正向经济发展提供支持。非矿业活动看似已改善。”
　　最新公布的经济数据再一次支持了市场普遍的观点，即澳洲储备银行将在周二的议息会议上维持官利2.5%不变。

                               
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周星星1832

        

                               
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澳洲央行行长Glenn Stevens（图片来源：《悉尼晨锋报》）

澳洲央行（Reserve Bank of Australia，RBA）已经决定将利率保持在历史低位2.5%。
声明发出后不久澳元立即下跌，到下午2点35分（澳大利亚东部夏令时），从89.69美分跌到89.20美分。

为促进非矿业投资，央行自2011年11月以来已经将官方利率削减了2.25个百分点。最近一次下调利率是在2013年8月。央行在2月份已经暗示要保持利率“一段时间的稳定”。

经济学家们广泛预测央行这个月将按兵不动，因为它正在观察低利率对经济的影响。

RBA上个月转向中性的货币政策立场，部分驱动因素是第四季度的通胀数据意外飙升。

央行在最近两天频频发布经济数据后宣布今年第二个月的利率决策。经济数据表明当前澳洲的经济形势相当复杂。

对利率相当敏感的房地产行业继续利用低利率创造的环境，统计局今天发布的数据显示，住房批建量的月度增幅达到10多年来的最高水平，独立房和公寓的批建量都剧烈增长。

然而，虽然同时期的住房市场继续显示增长迹象而且招聘广告数量飙升，昨天发布的一系列私人调查显示，制造业再次减速，通胀升到了RBA目标区间的顶端。

同时，统计局的进一步数据显示，第四季度商业指数表明库存资产正在减少，但公司利润和员工薪酬都有增长。

近年来RBA保持官利不变最久的时期是在2010年11月至2011年10月，期间利率一直保持在4.75%。