严冬来了！Australia will be in recession in 2014/2015

sieben

与其因为经济不好被就业的问题卡住，不如做点生意自救一下，也是一个出路啊。而且做什么生意的问题，真的很难预测，有一些过去被预测因为科技发展被淘汰的商品居然都还热卖，不断被提到的例子有机械表，蜡烛，收音机

atraveller

circleyue 发表于 24-2-2014 16:03

                               
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有钱可以屯点美元

Not US cash. Buy US assets, but wait for stock correction. It is bound to have one soon. I have kept buying US stocks since The day i came to Australia . Historically US always first in and first out of recession. It looks like history is going to repeat itself again.

circleyue

atraveller 发表于 12-3-2014 13:26

                               
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Not US cash. Buy US assets, but wait for stock correction. It is bound to have one soon. I have ke ...

Lee, how life in Canada? its been a long time!
I have missed the boat of buying US assets. I didn't pay much attention to the idea of one of my mentors who he bought lots of US houses and shares since 2011. US houses are now a bit too late. Plus its too hard and too expensive for me to manage in Aus.
Stock correction will be very soon I agree. I think Australia market has now more chances compare to US.
Cash up and waiting for the crush

牧马人

circleyue 发表于 12-3-2014 15:13

                               
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Lee, how life in Canada? its been a long time!
I have missed the boat of buying US assets. I didn ...

I believe it's better to change your money to US dollors and then wait for the crush.

atraveller

circleyue 发表于 12-3-2014 15:13

                               
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Lee, how life in Canada? its been a long time!
I have missed the boat of buying US assets. I didn ...

I spent most of time in China after i left Australia. Come to visit Canada when'd you have time.
Don't worry one opportunity passed and another one will come. Just wait and be ready.
I sold some risky stocks and hold on cash and defensive stocks. I don't think there is a crush but a correction is a sure thing. Stock market is moving too far than economic data can sustain.

I bought stock of a Canadian company who buy  and mange US residential and commercial properties. It is doing very well so far. You may find some Australian companies doing same business. Saving hassle to manage your own property.

circleyue

atraveller 发表于 12-3-2014 22:58
I spent most of time in China after i left Australia. Come to visit Canada when'd you have time.
...

I would love to visit Canada. But too much things going on.
For shares I'm still doing just research and will jump on only if there is a major correction. There is a lot of resource producing company are good valued but I'm expecting even better value later on. Will stay away from the small company too.

rongziyu

说的很有道理，澳洲的房子不知还可疯狂多久！

masonliu

经济形势不好，perth房地产也有些降温了，有些房子可以砍价了，以前都要加价才行。

丸子秋

求公布出处

七宝珈

urban2000 发表于 27-2-2014 15:50

                               
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Tafe老师说现在矿业的萧条已经完全传递到civil领域了，市场已经完全转向，郁闷。。。

怪不得wa的civil担保 基本处于closed状态

civil3d

很正常不担保，我们公司今天裁员了25人，终于等了几批等到自己了。

背心的马甲

civil3d 发表于 21-5-2014 16:03

                               
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很正常不担保，我们公司今天裁员了25人，终于等了几批等到自己了。

令兄啥公司啊，一天裁员那么多人？

civil3d

背心的马甲 发表于 21-5-2014 19:26

                               
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令兄啥公司啊，一天裁员那么多人？

公司名字就不提了，反正在st....tce,大家都知道的。没办法，公司撑不下去了，房租都快付不起了。

dx_dengcn

持有美元 是对抗目前经济下行唯一安全保险的手段

circleyue

更新一下
现在全世界基本都是零利息，欧元区是负利息。谁也不想自家货币出头被敲
澳洲央行应该不会在近期加息来推涨澳币，抑制出口，打击教育和旅游。
估计如果经济不好失业率增加，降息都有可能。唯一不好的是降息将会更刺激房地产，特别是东部非矿业为主城市的房地产，以及股票市场。
不过两害取其轻，估计央行会保经济，至少不加息，然后减少刺激房市政策，收紧外资购房。
西澳近期估计没戏了，矿业打击很大。所以房市可能会进一步回调，想买的不妨等等看看。
长期来看还是不错，原因主要和矿石价格，矿石品质，中国污染，中国消耗量有关（中国不增长都够澳洲赚的）
澳洲的矿石不愁卖的，只是价格高点低点。钱照样有人大把赚，不过只是更集中了（这个涉及到developing vs producing)
有机会会展看说说，太多信息了。

还有澳洲其实已经进入衰退了，总体还没有，人均已经衰退两年了，具体出处我要找找看。其实大家个人感觉是最重要的。

还有现在的经济已经是credit drive growth,再也不是capital drive growth了，还是信息太多。可以见面聊 好像好久大家都没吃货聚会了

mingmingzhang

门外汉 飘过打酱油，该来的还得来，不该来的也不会来，随遇而安过好每天就好。

circleyue

央行在不久的将来可能要降息了。
原话摘了两段如下，很隐晦，大家品品
Low interest rates were working to support demand, although it was difficult to judge the extent to which this would offset the expected substantial decline in mining investment and the effect of planned fiscal consolidation.

Notwithstanding a pick-up in growth around the turn 2014, GDP growth was expected to be below trend over the next year or so, rising gradually thereafter.

webster

circleyue 发表于 18-6-2014 19:24

                               
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央行在不久的将来可能要降息了。
原话摘了两段如下，很隐晦，大家品品
Low interest rates were working  ...

学习一下

牧马人

circleyue 发表于 18-6-2014 19:24

                               
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央行在不久的将来可能要降息了。
原话摘了两段如下，很隐晦，大家品品
Low interest rates were working  ...

欧洲央行搞了负利率，澳洲如果跟进一点也很顺理成章

8080

个人观点，不应该降息，不光是Mining，还要考虑大局。房地产等。

lowprofile

澳洲很多地方房价不算高，看看巴厘岛的房子，好点的也是八九十万澳元，也就是5房。。。

circleyue

circleyue 发表于 18-6-2014 20:24
央行在不久的将来可能要降息了。
原话摘了两段如下，很隐晦，大家品品
Low interest rates were working  ...

下周可能要降息了，这次的inflation数据不好看。最迟估计4/5月份一定要降了。
现在欧洲印钱，特别是加拿大降息，给了澳洲央行一个好借口降息。

埃，澳币估计还要跌。东部房子还要涨

circleyue

circleyue 发表于 24-2-2014 16:03
有钱可以屯点美元

挖老贴很有意思，我很开心，又不开心，唉，真累！！！！

超级立方体

非常经典的贴~顶

lowprofile

circleyue 发表于 29-1-2015 12:37
下周可能要降息了，这次的inflation数据不好看。最迟估计4/5月份一定要降了。
现在欧洲印钱，特别是加拿 ...

挺好的，给西部减减压吧，哈哈

circleyue

circleyue 发表于 29-1-2015 15:37
下周可能要降息了，这次的inflation数据不好看。最迟估计4/5月份一定要降了。
现在欧洲印钱，特别是加拿 ...

澳洲央行被欧洲，加拿大，新加坡一轮忽悠顶不住了，降息了。欢迎加入Global Currency War！！！
天朝也快了，美国到估计到年底也要顶不住了，那又要。。。。。。。。。。

NH6148

circleyue 发表于 10-6-2014 13:03
更新一下
现在全世界基本都是零利息，欧元区是负利息。谁也不想自家货币出头被敲
澳洲央行应该不会在近期 ...

澳币对RMB 已经 4.78了.

澳洲房市上涨，轮不上珀斯吗？

circleyue

NH6148 发表于 3-2-2015 19:08
澳币对RMB 已经 4.78了.

澳洲房市上涨，轮不上珀斯吗？

估计近期没什么戏

bluceyu

等时机换钱过来呢，这跌是好事，最好跌到09年那个低点。

bluceyu

珀斯现在房屋空置率很高，租金也在跌，房价上涨的概率太低。倒是最近发现不少房子挂了好几个月，都陆续降价了