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过去5年墨尔本新房建成量21万套 人口增长14万多户 供过于求6.5万套
过去5年悉尼新房建成量14万套 人口增长16万户 短缺1.8万套
去年墨尔本新房建造申请量为4.4万套，人口增长2.9万户，供过于求1.5万套
去年悉尼新房建造申请量为2万套，人口增长2.7万户，短缺0.7万套。
从2005-2011年6月30日的6年时间，墨尔本的新房开工量是25.5万套，人口增长是17.5万户，新房供过于求8万套。
这8万套房子至少需要3年才能消化完。
从2005-2011年6月30日，悉尼的新房开工量是16万套，人口增加是18.7万户，短缺2.5万套。这就是为什么悉尼现在Meriton, Australand, Crown,Mirac等开发商，随便预售60万的公寓楼花就被哄抢一空的原因所在。因为新盖得房子实在是太少了。
在悉尼买50万的房子，首次置业者是免印花税，非首次置业者的印花税是1.8万澳元。
而在墨尔本买50万以上的房子的印花税是1.76万澳元(减去20%的Concession),非首次置业者的印花税是2.5万澳元。
对墨尔本的租客来说，墨尔本的房租很便宜，全澳倒数第3
对墨尔本的房东来说，墨尔本的房价下跌的苦日子才刚刚开始
Housing Supply - Melbourne Good News, Sydney Bad News
July 12, 2011
Property market stirs
Rates are on hold, home prices are stable and first-home buyers awaken. Andrew Wilson reports.
Dr Andrew Wilson is Senior Economist for Fairfax-owned Australian Property Monitors.
As populations increase and buildings deteriorate, new stock is required to supply the community's ongoing requirements for shelter.
Providing access to the housing market through affordable dwellings is also an important function of the housing supply chain.
Individual housing markets supply new housing at different levels. The Melbourne and Sydney housing markets are stark examples of differences that can occur in housing supply levels.
New South Wales is Australia's most populous state and Sydney its most populous city. Latest ABS data reveals that New South Wales had a population at December 2010 of 7,272,200 with its capital Sydney recording 4,575,532 as at June 30 last year. The same ABS data set has Victoria's population at 5,585,600 and Melbourne at 4,077,036.
The construction of new homes in New South Wales and Victoria is however disproportionate to the comparative size of both the state and capital city populations.
Looking back over the last 20 years, it is clear to see that New South Wales house building levels have been in a long-term pattern of decline. In the ten years between 1990 and 2000, 455,276 new dwellings were built in New South Wales compared to the 348,803 built between 2000 and 2010.
Over the past 5 years the decline in new house building in New South Wales has been even more pronounced. Only 141,618 new dwellings were built between 2006 and 2010. During that time the number of households in New South Wales increased by 159,388 – nearly 20,000 more households than the number of new residences built.
By contrast Victorian dwelling construction has grown from strength to strength as indicated by the long-term pattern of activity. In the ten years between 1990 and 2000, 304,541 new dwellings were built in Victoria which increased markedly to 421,501 new dwellings between 2000 and 2010.
Over the past 5 years Victoria has built 211,381 dwellings with the number of households growing by 146,980. This represents an excess of nearly 65,000 new residences over new households.
Last year New South Wales built only 27,655 new dwellings. By contrast Victoria built a record 50,700 dwellings in 2010 approaching twice that produced by New South Wales.
The current significant difference in the level of dwelling construction between Victoria and New South Wales is set to continue, particularly in regard to the Sydney and Melbourne markets.
According to the ABS, only 20,756 dwellings were approved for building in Sydney between July 2010 and June 2011. Of this, only 7,534 were approvals for new houses. This compares with Melbourne that has approved 44,102 new dwellings for building over the same period of which 22,161 were houses.
The ABS projects that the number of Sydney households will grow by 27,012 over the year ending June 2011. Clearly the current level of new dwelling construction is insufficient to keep up with the growth in households. The number of Melbourne households is projected to grow by 29,114 over the year to June 2011. Melbourne's is clearly in a much better position than Sydney to cater for the accommodation needs of growing household numbers.
The level of housing supply in Melbourne offers the prospect of a more balanced housing market with moderated competition for housing providing the foundation for sustainable rental and house price growth. This will provide better general access to the market for tenants and prospective home buyers.
Melbourne is also providing increased diversity of accommodation options to its residents with continued strong home building in outer-urban areas, growth in suburban medium-density townhouses and a boom in inner-city apartments.
The chronic undersupply of new dwellings in Sydney will however only increase the already intense competition for housing in that city. This will continue to put upward pressure on rentals and house prices as tenants and prospective homeowners continue to struggle to gain a foothold in the housing market.
The current significant difference in the level of household growth and dwelling construction between the Sydney and Melbourne is illustrated by the considerable difference in median asking rentals for each city.
Sydney's rentals are nearly 33% more expensive than Melbourne, which is a clear indication of the comparatively high level of competition for accommodation in Sydney and the impact that has on housing costs.
Despite recent government action to temporarily cap and review infrastructure levies for housing developers, finding effective long-term remedies for Sydney's housing supply shortfall remains an extremely difficult problem.
As for Melbourne – well the news is a lot better.
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发表于 13-7-2011 18:24:43
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发表于 13-7-2011 20:24:26
维州政府聪明啊，多造点房子吸引海外资金
