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angelatu

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[ 本帖最后由 angelatu 于 29-10-2010 22:24 编辑 ]

angelatu

关于本周二RBA会议

How quickly things can change.

Just back from 3 weeks away and we have a new prime minister, that was a shock. Another government back flip on yet another tax. The property market seems to have continued to cool somewhat also in that time, so that we remain on a more sustainable long term growth platform rather than a raging market that risked bursting if it kept going the way it was.

But as always, some things change and some stay the same. At today’s Reserve bank meeting it was decided to leave interest rates on hold for another month as was widely expected.

The link below is to the RBA website if you would like to read more about the announcement.

As far as property goes it is swinging from a seller’s market into more of a buyer’s market, remember the old rule of investment. ‘Buy when everyone is selling and sell when everyone is buying’. Using that rule the there could be some good buy’s in the market now and in the coming months for those astute investors out there, you may also be up against less competition.

As with any investment strategy, do your research before jumping in. But those that procrastinate or wait to see if the market will drop further might be the ones who miss out.

Maybe, maybe not. No guarantees except that if you are never in it, you will never win it.

http://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2010/mr-10-12.html

angelatu

Another month and another announcement from the Reserve Bank on interest rates. At today’s meeting the RBA has decided to leave rates on hold for another month given that inflation rates have been contained within the comfort zone the RBA expects. Some pundits are still saying that they expect rates may still move up further this year but many are also saying that they do not expect any more movements for 2010.

How the inflation rate and the world’s economies perform over the next quarter will have the biggest bearing on what happens. In reality without these figures everyone is really only guessing. All be it the some guesses are more educated than others.

For my ‘Two bob’s’ worth I think that another quarter percent rise this year is still a 50/50 bet and beyond that it is simply too hard to tell. It seems daily however the world is largely recovering from the GFC with Australia in a better position than most. However, we are still in fragile economic times and although we might be in recovery it would not take much to give world markets the jitters. Another large financial institution going under or another European country getting into financial trouble could set optimism back a little. When it comes down to it, that overall optimism or sentiment in the market has the biggest bearing on  what happens in the real world.

The way it is looking we have entered a more stable interest rate cycle and it at least looks as if the sharp and fast rises that happened just a few months ago has had the effect the RBA looked for, it has also put them into a position of being able to lower rates to stimulate the economy should the worst happen.

It is interesting also that fixed interest rates have come down significantly with many lenders over the last couple of months. Earlier in the year it was common for fixed rates to be 2% or even higher than rates on standard variable rate loans. This gap has now largely closed and good fixed rates only slightly above standard variables are now available. Keeping in mind that a ‘Standard variable’ is still often half a percent or more above what might readily be available if you shop around.

Those that jumped the gun and fixed a few months ago might now be regretting that decision. That said, if you are considering fixing because you are worried rates will go higher now might be a more appropriate time. Remember though, it is still a gamble so get help and consider ALL the facts before doing so.

The housing market continues to be strong for quality in demand properties but has lost some of the ridiculous heat it has had in the past and looks like it too has gone into a more secure long term growth pattern in most areas rather than a boom and bust cycle.

All in all a good and stable month for those with a mortgage and those looking to take one out. Hopefully we will stay on this type of cycle well into the future with good but sustainable growth and inflation all round.

The link below is to the RBA website if you would like to have a look at today’s announcement.

Until next month keep well.

http://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2010/mr-10-12.html