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以下文章转载自澳大利亚人报：
Global crunch forces overseas students out
Guy Healy and Anthony Klan | January 19, 2009
Article from: The Australian
FOREIGN students have begun to pull out of Australia, in what could be the first sign of a softening in the $14.2 billion-a-year overseas student industry.
Universities and other educators contacted by The Australian reported an increase in deferrals while forecasting a decline in lucrative international enrolments as prospective students struggle to finance overseas education.
The contraction of Australia's third-biggest export industry, education, has the potential to cost jobs within the sector and hurt the housing market.
As universities brace for the fall-off, there is growing concern it will trigger a slump in unit sales as the parents of overseas students stop buying apartments for their children.
Global Campus management chairman, and founder of the Unilodge group, Mark Skinner said the global financial crisis "would certainly be affecting the purchase of apartments for students as residential accommodation".
It has been common practice for the parents of international students to purchase apartments in Sydney and Melbourne, in particular, and Brisbane while their children study in those cities, Mr Skinner said.
While there was no evidence this early in the year that the slowdown was hurting the rental market, Housing Industry Association senior economist Harley Dale said a slump in the number of international students could cause rental growth to slow.
"Immigration has been playing a major role in demand for housing over the last few years and there has been a fairly large student component to that," Mr Dale said. "If proportionally more of those students are not coming to Australia, or not staying for as long, then that means there will be a little bit less demand on the stretched amount of housing stock."
Mr Dale said any slump in foreign student enrolments could further exacerbate the downturn in house and apartment prices. "Some foreign students, if they come from wealthy Asian families, for example, buy homes to live in while they are studying," Mr Dale said. "If we see a trend (of fewer international students) sustained over the next year or two, that could flow on to the sales market."
UTS International, which processes international student applications for the University of Technology Sydney, said it was experiencing a higher than usual number of deferrals from Asian students.
Director Tzeay Chuah said the next two weeks could show a dramatic drop in numbers. "In another two weeks so many things could happen," she said.
Australian Council of Educational Research research director Phillip McKenzie has warned of a downturn. "The current economic crisis has the potential to reverse, or at least slow down, the growth of international student numbers in Australia," he said. Dr McKenzie noted that international enrolments continued to grow during the 1997 Asian financial crisis. But, he said, "I sense that we are in quite uncharted waters here."
The marketing director of English language school Global Village Sydney, Miles Mackenzie, said any fallout from the financial crisis would most likely be felt by school operators within three months. "Most operators are holding their breath," he said.
"Some people call education recession-free or recession-proof, but that's possibly wishful thinking."
Mr Mackenzie said short-term visitors learning English - rather than foreigners completing local university degrees - were more likely to abandon education in the face of the financial upheaval. "Many people who have made long-term plans for their children to be educated overseas have saved up the money and it's an important part of their future plans for their family," he said.
Seamus Fagan - the head of the national peak body for English language colleges, English Australia - confirmed a decline in enrolments from Asian markets, with Japanese and Korean numbers leading the fall.
"No one is panicking ... however, there has been some softening in the Japanese and Korean markets," he said. "Some projections from Japan indicate a slowdown in the mid-year. At the moment it seems to be holding, but we don't know over the longer term."
While the families of international students may be feeling the pinch at home, their children's living costs have reduced with the fall in the Australian dollar. Chinese student Lina Piao, 19, said the global financial crisis had put pressure on her father in Beijing, but her study prospects had been buoyed by the weakened dollar.
"Before I had to work every day, but now I can concentrate on my studies," Ms Piao said. The student, who studies at Taylor's College in Sydney, aims to study hotel management at university next year. She said the impact of the crisis had so far not been as bad in China as in countries such as the US, but predicted a greater crunch next year.
University of NSW student Xing Hao Wang, also from China, agreed the falling dollar had softened the blow for Chinese students coming to Australia. But Harrison Ko, a 19-year-old Australian engineering student at the University of NSW, said many of his international student friends had been told by their families to cut back on their living expenses. "They are changing their lifestyles, what they eat, where they live," Mr Ko said. "The exchange rate is good, but there is still the pressure on the families to pay the fees."
Taeho Seol, 23, from Korea, studying English at the University of the Sunshine Coast, said: "Australia is a little bit expensive for me, like it is for most Asian people."
His friend, 22-year-old Dahee Park, also from Korea, wants to study English in Australia as well.
But the cost is a stumbling block. "In Korea, studying English is cheaper than it is here," Ms Park said. "In Korea, it could be $100 a month, but here, it's $100 a week. Most Koreans feel studying in Australia is expensive as do people from Taiwan and China."
Additional reporting: Angus Hohenboken, Sarah Elks |
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发表于 21-1-2009 12:14:44
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