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Proposed principles for a new MODL
The previous section outlined the need for a new MODL, one designed to deliver high
value, nation building skills for Australia through an independent visa program that is not
the major source of skilled migration, but supports a demand driven employer and State
sponsored skilled program. This section puts forward some broad principles that would
underpin a new MODL to give this effect.
The objective of a new MODL is to identify applicants for skilled migration who have the
best prospects for making a productive contribution to Australia due to their high level skills
which correspond strongly to Australia’s ongoing needs.
The MODL should be the primary migration instrument for identifying longer term skills
needed in independent migrants. This recognises the role of the permanent and temporary
sponsored visa classes in meeting the immediate and short-term skill requirements of
employers.
Sponsored applicants will remain first priority in the GSM program. That reinforces the
importance of MODL as the main selection mechanism for the balance of places available
in the skilled stream. Introduction of the new MODL will involve phasing out the existing
MODL and the CSL, with transition arrangements to be determined.
i) The MODL targets skills of high economic value to Australia
Skills are acquired through a mixture of education and training and experience. For
individuals, there are strong returns to education, especially at graduate and post-graduate
level, and to occupational tenure.
From the perspective of the economy skills of high value are likely to be those which are:
• highly specialised, occupation specific and taking a long time to learn
• vital in production, distribution processes or service industries
• deployed for the uses intended
• likely to underpin innovation or improved productivity.
A key question is whether eligibility for occupations to be included on MODL should be
restricted to 60 point occupations. Currently, for occupations which attract 40 or 50 point
occupations, the skills assessment is general, that is, it determines whether an applicant
has the level of education required to work in the occupation in Australia and does not
include a consideration of the suitability of that education to the nominated occupation.
While the economic value of some occupations which attract only 50 or 40 points may be
unquestioned, if applicants are unable to work in their nominated occupation or another
equally skilled position, they are prevented from being of high economic value as defined
above.
The issues of skill level and value are sometimes difficult to measure, and there are a
number of options about how we regard the level of skill and economic value of each
occupation. The extent to which the MODL should play a part in contributing skills to the
Australian labour market in occupations for which shortages have been persistent also
requires consideration.
Select skills: principles for a new MODL 25
The ANZSCO includes a concept of skill level, ranking occupations according to a five point
scale. The application of the skill levels in ANZSCO is based on advice from employers,
training bodies, professional associations and others but examination of educational
attainment data from the ABS Survey of Education and Work suggests the skill level
allocations in ANZSCO are indicative in nature.
Assessment of economic value could be considered to be reflected in what employers are
prepared to pay for skills. An earnings threshold below which occupations could not be
placed on the MODL could be considered. This is presently applied to occupational lists in
both New Zealand and the United Kingdom. Concerns about this relate to issues around
payment for hours and conditions of employment such as compensation for split shifts,
dangerous conditions and work in particular locations as well as persistence of shortages in
some key, but relatively low paying occupations which market mechanisms have not
addressed. It is also important that the independent skilled stream does not create
incentives to undermine the salary floor being introduced for temporary sponsored skilled
migrants through the 457 visa regime.
An alternative option for determining high value would be to specify a mixture of required
qualifications and occupational experience. This is already done to an extent but further
development of this concept could be considered.
Research undertaken by DEEWR indicates employers’ unmet skill needs are generally for
workers who have significant relevant experience.
Should the focus of the MODL be broadened in this way, it may also be appropriate to
rename the tool to reflect the importance of a migration program that targets applicants with
a range of high value skill sets, not just occupations.
ii) The MODL complements domestic skill supply and maximises skill
utilisation
Adjustment costs could be imposed on industry, existing local employees and young
entrants to the labour market if the flow of skilled migrants into different occupations is out
of proportion to the size and needs of an industry. For example, an unmanaged flow of
skilled migrants into a particular occupation may increase the difficulty for young entrants to
gain a job in that occupation.
Skilled migration needs to be considered in combination with the supply of skills that come
through domestic education and training. As part of the government’s Education
Revolution, and under the auspices of the Council of Australian Governments, targets have
been set to boost the educational attainment of young Australians.
While education and training imparts many generic skills, equipping individuals to transfer
between occupations throughout their working life, the extent of people working in
occupations which are not at all related to their skills and training represents wastage and
the misallocation of valuable resources. A key factor contributing to skill shortages is
wastage of qualified workers to unrelated occupations. This is equally true of migrants and
those who are domestically trained, however there is some evidence that migrants are
Select skills: principles for a new MODL 26
more likely to find themselves in a lesser skilled job than that for which they are qualified,
although the match improves the longer migrants work in Australia.
Further, the concentration of visa grants in a relatively small number of occupations
suggests a need for consideration to be given to the relative contribution of skilled workers
through domestic supply and skilled migration.
The accountant example provided earlier in this paper shows a relatively large size of the
migrant intake in this occupation as a proportion of occupational employment.
Consideration could be given to the introduction of ceilings or caps on places for individual
occupations. This could be done on the basis of the size of the occupational labour market
or consideration could be given to the appropriateness and feasibility of developing a
migration to training rate concept. However, this latter concept is likely to be difficult and
may be counter productive if the desired outcome of the program is higher migration
intakes in occupations where domestic training numbers have been historically low.
iii) The MODL is prospective
The current methodology for the MODL is primarily retrospective, identifying occupations in
skill shortage and where demand for labour has been strong. Although partial weight is
given to prospective labour demand through the consideration of whether an occupation is
projected to have strong employment growth over the next five years, this factor has
relatively small impact on the overall determination and can be outweighed by other factors.
Revising MODL to have a prospective approach would be an innovative approach to skilled
migrant selection internationally, however, there are clearly inherent complexities
associated with it.
It is not possible to forecast skill shortages with any degree of precision, however a
methodology that places greater emphasis on the likely future demand for skilled
occupations is a better approach given the time lags inherent in the independent migration
process. Work undertaken to produce a prospective basis for the MODL would be
undertaken in consultation with the work of Skills Australia to ensure consistency and to
meet principle ii) of complementing domestic skill supply and maximising skill utilisation.
The DEEWR work which is already used in the MODL methodology, and which models
employment growth figures for each occupational unit group, could be used to rank
occupations. The employment projections are based on a range of factors, including
forecasts from economic models, recent trends and occupational developments, the extent
to which the occupation is concentrated in industries which are themselves growing.
Replacement needs (demand for new workers resulting from people leaving the
occupation) would need to be part of this approach.
In being prospective, the focus would be on the anticipated strength of labour
demand. It may be possible for this work to be considered in tandem with information about
labour supply, although supply side estimates are more complex.
A prospective time frame of 3 to 5 years may be appropriate given the lags in the migration
process and this time horizon could allow consideration of occupations on the MODL to be
Select skills: principles for a new MODL 27
cognisant of changes in skill supply through domestic tertiary education and training based
on past and current enrolment and completion patterns.
iv) The MODL should not be driven by short term employment cycles
As was illustrated in the background section, the number of occupations on the MODL has
varied over the course of its ten year history.
In line with the intent for MODL to be more forward looking and be targeted at high value
skills which are in demand over the longer term, it is desirable that it be relatively stable
and not subject to significant six monthly changes.
Uncertainty about the inclusion of occupations on MODL and the six monthly revisions
focussed on immediate skills needs make it difficult for those who are contemplating
migrating to Australia to plan. Coupled with the time lags associated with the independent
skilled program and the increased focus on the sponsored component of the program to
address short term skill needs, this suggests the need for a more stable MODL which is set
against medium-long term skill needs rather than the more variable, cyclical demand for
occupation specific skills.
v) The MODL needs to take account of other migration arrangements
The methodology underlying a revised MODL and its interaction with the points test need to
reinforce the role of independent migration to supplement, rather than drive the skilled
migration program.
An option flagged above to target higher value skills through MODL is include a work
experience threshold as well as a skills requirement. This would be consistent with the
findings of DEEWR’s skill shortage research that higher value accrues through greater
experience and with the points allocated for specific work experience in the GSM points
test. By definition, most recent graduates would fail to meet this requirement. Consideration
could be given to requiring former students to be sponsored on a temporary visa for a
certain time after graduating before being eligible for independent migration. While this
option would need to take account of the impact on local graduates and possible rorting
which could result from such as requirement, the imminent changes to the 457 program
under the Worker Protection Act address many of the concerns about the potential for
exploitation of temporary sponsored workers.
These pathways should be clear and provide appropriate opportunities for study in
Australia and for permanent residence for those who meet the needs of the Australian
economy and labour market. These settings should not however provide low hurdles for
those seeking permanent residence.
vi) The MODL is evidence based and underpinned by a robust and
transparent methodology
The existing methodology for MODL is documented, transparent and involves a sound
evidence-based process for determining which occupations meet the selected criteria. A
new MODL should preserve this approach, though it will require a new methodology to give
effect to its revised purpose and principles.
Select skills: principles for a new MODL 28
It would also be useful to consider:
• the scheduling of future MODL updates on a regular basis, perhaps annually
• the respective roles of DEEWR and DIAC
• the involvement of stakeholders and of independent experts in the process.
A particular weakness at present is inadequate data on the labour market outcome of
recent migrants, and the extent to which migrant skills are put to good effect, either in their
nominated occupation or one closely related. Evidence about the labour market outcomes
of migrants selected on the basis of their skill would be one of the factors taken into
account in reviews.
The ABS does a biennial survey of recent migrants – defined as those arriving in Australia in
the past ten years – though this does not capture visa class information. For this reason,
DIAC has instituted a new bi-annual survey of recent migrants. The first round of this survey
will take place in September 2009, with further rounds to follow each six months. The survey
will capture the initial labour market outcomes of new permanent residents and former
overseas students who remain in Australia. Subject to meeting necessary quality standards,
this survey could become a significant source in informing updates to the new MODL.
DEEWR already prepares data on future labour demand by occupation. A supporting
research study is examining international experience in forecasting skill needs/shortages,
but quality data on anticipated labour supply arising from the balance of newly qualified
tertiary students against those leaving the occupation or retiring from the labour market is
required.
Select skills: principles for a new MODL 29
Conclusion
By placing a strong emphasis on the capacity of the sponsored program to cater for
immediate skills needs, the Government intends to reposition independent skilled migration
as a program to meet medium to long term skills requirements. The objective of the MODL
review is to examine whether the results being delivered by the current methodology and
how it is weighted in the GSM assessment process are meeting these needs in a changing
labour market. Responses received to this Issues paper will inform the recommendations of
the review on the purpose and methodology that should underpin the MODL into the future.
本贴的宗旨在于：希望大家通过对新移民职业列表预案出台精神的领会，甚至是揣测后，作出及时，合理及正确的判断及回应。
[ 本帖最后由 francis_zhang 于 16-8-2009 18:26 编辑 ] |
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发表于 16-8-2009 14:21:11
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楼主
发表于 16-8-2009 17:54:17
