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October 01, 2013 3:24PM
THE Reserve Bank of Australia kept official interest rates at a record low 2.5 per cent for the second month in a row, saying that the impact of its earlier cuts were still filtering through the economy.
The move was widely expected, with none of the 33 economists surveyed by Bloomberg ahead of the decision predicting a cut.
The Australian dollar gained third of a US cent immediately after the RBA’s announcement, climbing to US93.74 cents from US93.39 cents.
In a statement that accompanied the rate decision, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said that the economy had grown “a bit below trend” over the past year and was expected to continue in the same vein in the near-term as mining giants reeled in the amount they spent on developing projects.
The jobless rate had edged higher, Mr Stevens said, and it was too soon to judge whether improved household and business sentiments were a blip or here to stay. Inflation was on target, he added, and with the cost of labour moderating, was likely to stay that way.
“The easing in monetary policy since late 2011 has supported interest-sensitive spending and asset values,” the central bank boss said. “The full effects of these decisions are still coming through, and will be for a while yet.”
Today’s statement referred obliquely to the recent concern over rapidly-rising property prices in some areas.
“The pace of borrowing has remained relatively subdued to date, though recently there have been signs of increased demand for finance by households,” Mr Stevens said.
“There is also continuing evidence of a shift in savers' behaviour in response to declining returns on low-risk assets.”
Although the Australia dollar had risen recent, it was still about 10 per cent below its level in April, he added.
“At today's meeting, the Board judged that the setting of monetary policy remained appropriate,” Mr Stevens concluded.
“The Board will continue to assess the outlook and adjust policy as needed to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation outcomes consistent with the target.
The central bank has cut rates eight times since late 2011 to bolster economic activity outside mining. Over the past month, however, there has been increased concern that long-running, record-low borrowing costs were overheating the property market.
Senior bank officials moved last month to douse talk of a local property bubble in September but subsequently warned self-managed superannuation funds against becoming overexposed to property on the back of temporarily cheap loans.
Data released today by RP Data-Rismark showed that Sydney and Melbourne house prices jumped 2.5 per cent in the month of September alone – consolidating quarterly gains in each city of more than 5 per cent – which lifted the median capital city house price to $500,000, above the previous national peak recorded in October 2010.
“We haven’t seen market conditions this strong since April 2009 for Sydney and May 2010 for Melbourne,” Tim Lawless, a director at RP Data, said, pointing out that housing markets in the other capital cities remained relatively subdued.
Also today, data from China showed that the manufacturing sector of the world’s second-largest economy continued to expand in September, and Australian retail sales expanded in August provided more cause for optimism. August retail sales grew 0.4 per cent to $21.9 billion in August, a little more quickly than expected thanks to a massive jump in spending at department stores.
The RBA faces a dilemma in the lead up to Christmas, with both local unemployment and house prices rising and and the dollar, which the bank had hoped would continue falling, unexpectedly buoyed by the US Federal Reserve’s decision to extend its controversial bond-buying program.
Economists are divided about whether the RBA will cut rates further in coming months, with financial markets anticipating one more rate cut with about 50 per cent probability over the next six months.
JP Morgan economist Tom Kennedy said there was still the possibility of another interest rate cut this year.
“The burden is going to be in the economic data and if it deteriorates it will get them over line (for another rate cut),” he said, pointing to September-quarter consumer price index (CPI) that will be released on October 23, two weeks before the RBA's November board meeting.
Mr Kennedy said if inflation remained benign then that would make a Melbourne Cup day interest rate cut very likely.
“When you get a soft CPI print, rising unemployment and pretty slow growth, those factors mean the RBA is once again a chance of taking the cash rate lower,'' he said.
But HSBC chief economist Paul Bloxham said today’s statement from Mr Stevens was “fairly bland'' and provided little insight into the RBA's next move.
“There was very little, almost no forward guidance in this statement,'' Mr Bloxham said. They noted the exchange rate had lifted a bit but they don't seem overly concerned about it. They noted that sentiment has improved but think it's too soon to judge whether it's going to persist.
“I think the broader point is it does look as though interest rates are getting more of a grip on the housing market and sentiment has lifted. If those trends persist, I don't see the RBA cutting rates further.''
Additional reporting: AAP
- See more at: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/ ... thash.nkVBNzpb.dpuf |