Soaring dollar could fall 25% Chris Zappone
October 9, 2010
THE Australian dollar's dramatic rise towards parity with the US dollar has left the currency exposed to the possibility of a correction, analysts say.
The Australian dollar leapt to US99.18¢ on Thursday night - the highest level since the currency was floated in 1983 - driven by strong data on the local economy and a weakening trend for the greenback. The dollar retreated to the US98.3¢ mark in local trade Friday afternoon.
''While many in the market believe parity will be reached, it will be difficult to see sustained trading at those levels in the longer term,'' said Travelex's Head of Risk Solutions, Anthony Gray. ''Get ready for the excitement as we reach parity, but do not be disappointed if the party wraps up pretty quickly.''
Advertisement: Story continues below New York-based GFT director Kathy Lien said that when the Aussie's purchasing power was viewed against the purchasing power of other currencies, it appeared extremely overvalued. ''At an exchange of US98¢, the Aussie is approximately 30 per cent overvalued against the US dollar,'' Ms Lien said.
''In fact, the Aussie is overvalued against every major currency including the British pound, Japanese yen, euro and New Zealand dollar,'' she said.
In addition to gains against the greenback, since August 25, the Aussie has risen 5 pence against the British pound to trade recently at 61.8 pence. It has also risen 6 yen on the Japanese currency to be at 80.8 yen, and New Zealand 5¢ against the kiwi to trade at NZ$1.31. The Australian dollar in its 27 years as a freely floating currency has had a long term value of US73.48¢.
''When valuations become this out of line, the general belief is that it needs to return to more sensible levels but it could be a long time before they do,'' Ms Lien said.
The Australian dollar's latest rally was sparked on Thursday when jobs data showed the economy added almost 50,000 new jobs last month - twice the level expected.
The surprisingly large increase led investors to bet the Reserve Bank would raise its key interest rate next month, adding to the relative allure of holding the Aussie dollar.
Also, in recent weeks the US Federal Reserve has hinted it could embark on another round of quantitative easing, a process aimed at bolstering economic growth that also weakens the US dollar against other currencies.
Nonetheless, the Aussie's run has drawn warnings from currency experts about a potential correction once market sentiment shifts. ''In financial markets as in other walks of life, the bigger they are the harder they fall,'' said 4Cast Ltd economist Ray Attrill. ''So if and when we do see a major shake-out … the Australian dollar will likely fall faster and further than just about any other G10 currency,'' he said, referring to the Group of 10 large economies.
Credit Suisse analyst Damien Boey said that on conventional currency assumptions the Aussie dollar could be overvalued by as much as 25 per cent.
''But we don't live in a normal world, because of quantitative easing globally,'' Mr Boey said. ''One day, we will revert to a more normal macro environment, and the currency will correct. But there is no visible catalyst for correction.''作者: lisa2008 时间: 10-10-2010 17:01
请老林第一个来翻译如何？
翻译之后欢迎大家一起点评 作者: ynggnptwlv 时间: 10-10-2010 17:59
理论上的沙发，支持楼主一下作者: 老林 时间: 10-10-2010 18:04
老师很认真，作业很沉重，学生很着急！作者: 老林 时间: 10-10-2010 18:59
Soaring dollar could fall 25%
Chris Zappone
October 9, 2010
暴涨的澳元可能面临下跌25%的风险
THE Australian dollar's dramatic rise towards parity with the US dollar has left the currency exposed to the possibility of a correction, analysts say.
澳元对美元汇率的暴涨已经使澳元面临随时被市场矫正的可能（风险），有分析人士指出。
The Australian dollar leapt to US99.18¢ on Thursday night - the highest level since the currency was floated in 1983 - driven by strong data on the local economy and a weakening trend for the greenback. The dollar retreated to the US98.3¢ mark in local trade Friday afternoon.
''While many in the market believe parity will be reached, it will be difficult to see sustained trading at those levels in the longer term,'' said Travelex's Head of Risk Solutions, Anthony Gray. ''Get ready for the excitement as we reach parity, but do not be disappointed if the party wraps up pretty quickly.''
[ 本帖最后由 老林 于 10-10-2010 19:54 编辑 ]作者: 老林 时间: 10-10-2010 19:40
Advertisement: Story continues below New York-based GFT director Kathy Lien said that when the Aussie's purchasing power was viewed against the purchasing power of other currencies, it appeared extremely overvalued. ''At an exchange of US98¢, the Aussie is approximately 30 per cent overvalued against the US dollar,'' Ms Lien said.
(广告时间: 最烦插播广告！ ) 继续刚才的话题，位于纽约的GFT公司经理Kathy Lien说，当我们把澳元和其它几个币种的购买力拿来进行对比时，你就会发现，澳元明显估值过高。假设交易汇率是1澳元兑98美分，那么澳元就会被高估了接近30澳分。
''In fact, the Aussie is overvalued against every major currency including the British pound, Japanese yen, euro and New Zealand dollar,'' she said.
“事实上，澳元对包括英镑，日元，欧元和新西兰元在内的所有主要币种都存在估值过高的情况。”她说。
In addition to gains against the greenback, since August 25, the Aussie has risen 5 pence against the British pound to trade recently at 61.8 pence. It has also risen 6 yen on the Japanese currency to be at 80.8 yen, and New Zealand 5¢ against the kiwi to trade at NZ$1.31. The Australian dollar in its 27 years as a freely floating currency has had a long term value of US73.48¢.
从8月25号以来，澳元兑美元再升值，对英镑升了5便士达到61.8便士，对日元升了6日元达到了80.8日元，对新西兰元升了5分达到1.31新元。作为一种自由流通货币，澳元在它27年的历史上，一直维持在73.48美分的汇率水平。
''When valuations become this out of line, the general belief is that it needs to return to more sensible levels but it could be a long time before they do,'' Ms Lien said.
"当它的估值超出它的真实价值的时候，一般来讲，它需要回到一个较合理的估值水平上，这可能需要很长一段时间才能完成。”Lien女士说。
) 继续刚才的话题，位于纽约的GFT公司经理Kathy Lien说，当我们把澳元和其它几个币种的购买力拿来进行对比时，你就会发现，澳元明显估值过高。假设交易汇率是1澳元兑98美分，那么澳元就会被高估了接近30澳分。