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标题: 号外：铁矿石跌破50美金 [打印本页]

作者: 008 时间: 6-3-2015 12:48
标题: 号外：铁矿石跌破50美金
本帖最后由 008 于 4-4-2015 00:32 编辑

FROM：  https://www.businessspectator.co ... -tumbles-below-us60

Iron ore price tumbles below $US60
Daniel Palmer  |
5 hours ago  |

Economy |
Commodities |
Markets

After a steady retreat toward the $US60 a tonne mark over the past few weeks, iron ore has crumbled below the key level in overnight trade.

The development followed the release of new forecasts from Beijing that tipped China's growth to slip to 7 per cent in 2015, the lowest rate in over 15 years.

China is the world's largest consumer of iron ore.

At the end of the latest offshore session, benchmark iron ore for immediate delivery to the port of Tianjin in China was trading at $US59.30 a tonne, down 4.5 per cent from its previous close of $US62.10 a tonne.

The move leaves iron ore at a near six-year low, with the commodity last seeing a price with a five at the front of it back in 2009, during the depths of the financial crisis.

The commodity has now lost ground in eight of the past nine trading sessions and has fallen four straight days since news of a rate cut from the People's Bank of China surfaced over the weekend.

It is an ominous sign ahead of the crucial start of construction season in China, with demand growth from the key customer needed to help offset rising supplies from mining giants BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Vale.

Beyond the muted 7 per cent growth target out of China, investors were likely also worried about rising production after data released on Thursday showed a record amount of iron ore being shipped from Port Hedland last month.

The port, in Western Australia, is the world's largest bulk-export terminal and used by the likes of Rio, BHP and Fortescue Metals Group.

Local iron ore miners Fortescue, BC Iron, Mount Gibson Iron and Atlas Iron have all lost significant ground this week on markets and risk further punishment from traders during the local session on Friday.

Meanwhile, diversified miners Rio and BHP enjoyed contrasting sessions in overnight trade amid a rising market in London, with BHP adding 0.2 per cent and Rio - which is more heavily exposed to iron ore - sinking 2.8 per cent.

作者: 008 时间: 6-3-2015 12:50
FROM: http://www.smh.com.au/business/m ... 20150306-3rkw6.html

Markets Live: Iron ore hits new low

DateMarch 6, 2015 - 10:49AM 156 reading now

Comments 63
Read later

Patrick Commins, Jens Meyer

Shares trade back in the red in a choppy start after a brief pulse from the banks faded fast, with weakness in the miners driving losses after the iron ore price slumped overnight.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/m ... .html#ixzz3TZAGfn9K
It would have come as no surprise to Australia's iron ore miners to see the price for the commodity with the number five at the front.

But the fact that iron ore is now trading below $US60 a tonne on the spot market will again underline the widening gap between the sector's haves and have-nots.

The price of benchmark iron ore at China's Qingdao port dropped 3.6 per cent to $US59.73 a tonne overnight, according to Metal Bulletin, hitting a new six-year low.

The fall under $US60 comes on the same day the iron ore juniors BC Iron, Mount Gibson Iron and Atlas Iron were removed from the ASX 200. Their share prices have fallen 90 per cent, 70 per cent and 82 per cent respectively in the last 12 months – these are clearly the have-nots.

For these guys, every slip in the iron ore price is bad news. RBC estimated BC Iron's break-even price – that is, the price where is it is not losing or making money – would be $US60 to $US66 a tonne in the second half of the 2015 financial year. Atlas was running around $US67 a tonne in the first half, and is desperately trying to push its costs down.

While BHP and Rio have their break-even prices below $US40 a tonne, and Fortescue says its break-even is $US52 a tonne (down from $US60 a tonne late last year) the likes of Atlas, BC and Mount Gibson are sinking further into the red.

For these guys, an iron ore price below $US60 a tonne isn't symbolic – it could be a matter of life and death.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/m ... .html#ixzz3TZAODaNc

作者: madrista 时间: 6-3-2015 13:17
哦耶，啥也不用搞了，大家一起跟着泰坦尼克往下沉吧～

作者: huaxing0111 时间: 6-3-2015 13:37
哈哈哈哈继续跌

作者: samchen 时间: 6-3-2015 14:42
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015- ... nue-to-drop/6258036

BHP未来18个月要做4 b的savings

作者: bluceyu 时间: 6-3-2015 15:21
看看中国那严重过剩的钢铁产能，想想中国做出的从2020年开始减少温室气体排放承诺，感叹下柴静的环保宣传片中如此多的敏感话题居然能拿出来讨论。
铁矿石跌到30美元，真的不是不可能！
也许就在这两年内。

作者: 8080 时间: 6-3-2015 16:14
本帖最后由 8080 于 6-3-2015 16:51 编辑

bluceyu 发表于 6-3-2015 15:21
看看中国那严重过剩的钢铁产能，想想中国做出的从2020年开始减少温室气体排放承诺，感叹下柴静的环保宣传片 ...

克强说： 2015年碳排放要降3.1%
From: http://www.backchina.com/news/2015/03/06/349660.html
今年中国的二氧化碳排放强度要降低3.1%以上，化学需氧量、氨氮排放都要减少2%左右，二氧化硫、氮氧化物排放要分别减少3%左右和5%左右。

个人认为铁矿石CFR CHN价格30美金不太可能， CFR CHN美金大约主要在50至60应该会保持一段时间，一些矿公司倒闭/被收购是有很大可能的。
如以上估计错了，请见凉。因为我连砖家都算不上。

作者: bluceyu 时间: 6-3-2015 19:36
在50-60每吨，如果持续较长时间不少小公司就吃不消了，他们的成本就在这区间，而大公司，则肯定会缩减开支，裁员。
相对铁矿石，我对油气稍微乐观点
咱也不是啥大湿。就在这瞎说，乐呵乐呵

作者: 8080 时间: 6-3-2015 20:12
本帖最后由 8080 于 7-3-2015 00:20 编辑

bluceyu 发表于 6-3-2015 19:36
在50-60每吨，如果持续较长时间不少小公司就吃不消了，他们的成本就在这区间，而大公司，则肯定会缩减开支 ...

我对澳洲的油气比铁矿石还悲观

特别是未来海事就业和海事未来。

作者: bluceyu 时间: 7-3-2015 00:31

8080 发表于 6-3-2015 20:12
我对澳洲的油气比铁矿石还悲观特别是未来海事就业和海事未来。

你我都在海事业混饭吃，能不能不要这么悲观？

作者: retirement 时间: 7-3-2015 01:22
30？我不信，力拓的成本也35，30就直接停产了。就现在这个样子，已经开始裁员了。至于油气我不懂，猜测不会比铁矿差吧，毕竟能源不可再生，更值钱。

作者: 8080 时间: 7-3-2015 08:18
油气，有的人是杀鸡取蛋。
工程老是拖，预算老是翻，将来谁还有钱/谁还敢投资。再加上988签证。

作者: 8080 时间: 7-3-2015 09:27
力拓要裁员800个工人和承包商

From: http://www.smh.com.au/business/m ... 0150306-13x1ix.html

Miners are struggling after the collapse of iron ore prices.

Miners are struggling after the collapse of iron ore prices. Photo: Reuters

The plunging iron ore price could force high-cost mines in Western Australia to shut by July, according to senior mining executives and analysts.

The price of key steel-making ingredient crashed below $US60 a tonne overnight on Thursday to the lowest level since May 2009, when daily prices became the benchmark pricing system.

It adds further pressure to miners that have been dramatically cutting costs for the past six months.

Perth-based Patersons Securities head of research Rob Brierleysaid the sustained price rout would trigger miners to scale back or mothball mines.

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"We have been dealing with this iron ore price for the best part of six months so it would be starting to hurt them," Mr Brierley said.

"The next stage would be starting to look at rationalising production and scaling it back. I would expect that to be the next phase; high-cost mines shuttering and lower-cost mines being worked harder."

He said this may happen by July.

"All of them are letting people go and doing everything from a cost perspective but sooner or later you squeeze that lemon until there is no juice left," Mr Brierley said.

"I don't see the iron ore price getting any better."

Traders are nervous demand for iron could soften after China set its lowest target for economic growth in 15 years.

Mothballing

The sustained iron ore price rout is heaping enormous pressure on the nation's miners, which have been slashing costs for nearly a year to preserve profits. Most are now loss-making.

Resources consultancy Wood Mackenzie warned Mineral Resources' Carina mine, 400 kilometres east of Perth, was one of three mines at risk of closing if the price remained about $US60 a tonne or lower.

Mineral Resources chairman Peter Wade said the company, which also operates mines for other miners, would re-evaluate Carina's operations after the iron ore price slid below $US60 a tonne.

"The board has a look at these things every meeting and certainly Carina has higher operating costs than Iron Valley primarily because we don't own the associated infrastructure," Mr Wade said.

"We are looking at it closely but the board hasn't made any determination that we would be mothballing that plant right now but certainly the price change over night means it needs to be looked at again."

The price fall coincided with iron ore juniors BC Iron, Mount Gibson Iron and Atlas Iron being removed from the S&P/ASX 200 index.

Their share prices have fallen 90 per cent, 70 per cent and 82 per cent respectively in the last 12 months, pushing their market value below cash on hand.

Perth-based Argonaut resources analyst Matthew Keane said most miners were struggling.

"The reality is most of the miners, other than BHP and Rio, are in a loss-making position," Mr Keane said. "Fortescue Metals Group is operating on slim margin. They are right on the knife-edge at these prices."

Atlas wobbly

Atlas could close its Abydos mine to preserve cash, he said.

"With prices below $US60 the [Atlas] board will be talking about what do we do?"

"If the price fall is sustained and if falls towards $US50 per tonne, that should prompt people to shut mines. They would look to go on care and maintenance."

Auditors for Atlas warned last month the junior miner might have to sell assets or raise funds to repay debt if it fails to meet its latest cash flow forecasts.

Auditor KPMG said Atlas' cash flow forecasts were "highly dependent" on assumptions for the iron ore price, the Australian exchange rate and operating and capital costs.

"Should these key assumptions which underpin the cash flow forecasts not be achieved, the group may be required to source additional funds through debt or equity markets or a sell-down of assets," KPMG said.

Atlas Iron managing director Ken Brinsden could not be reached for comment.

Dollar a cushion

Veteran Perth dealmaker and Argonaut chairman Charles Fear said the current commodities downturn was the worst in more than 20 years.

"This is the deepest [downturn] I have seen since 1993," Mr Fear said. "Thermal coal took three years to halve [in price], iron ore took less than a year and oil has taken three months. Base metals are under enormous pressure."

The depreciation of the Australian dollar since December has cushioned the blow for the West Australian government and has helped relieve some of the pressure for many miners.

The West Australian government slashed its iron ore forecast for 2014-15 from $US122.7 a tonne to $US75 a tonne in December.

The iron ore price has averaged $US66.41 a tonne since December 3, when the government ruled off its books for its mid year forecasts.

The price fall has cut $481 million from expected iron ore royalty revenue. However, the softening dollar will boost the books by $426 million, meaning the net impact of the lower iron ore price is $55 million.

But the government is shouldering the burden by returning a chunk of royalty payments to junior miners when prices trade below $90 a tonne.

Eligible small miners are able to have half of their royalties reimbursed to them but must repay the state government by December, 2017.

Life support

One analyst who declined to be named said junior miners are operating on tenuous forms of life support.

"The danger in the Australian market is that you have a falling dollar meaning that the mid-tiers here are under the impression things will get better for them so they hang in there but for a correction in the price, which is good for the industry, we need them out," he said.

Rio Tinto is cutting about 800 employees and contractors as it hammers down costs.

A spokesman for Rio said the miner had been cutting costs for a number of years "in the knowledge of an expected decline in iron ore prices".

"We must continue to take actions that ensure our business remains competitive," the spokesman said.

"We have been identifying opportunities to simplify and streamline our organisation. Where possible, we are moving those affected into existing vacancies or other parts of our business. Unfortunately, in some circumstances there will be people leaving our business.

"We are working closely with our employees through this process. We will provide support and assistance to those who are impacted."

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/m ... .html#ixzz3TeB6vlCg

作者: bluceyu 时间: 13-3-2015 00:13
不知道8080是在开什么船现在？拖轮还是别的？能说说你见到的景象吗？
我是海事相关设计类的，最近都没什么项目，开春到现在做的估计只够发我们工资。这两天AOG 展览你有去看吗？给我的感觉是整体很安静，我们公司现在就靠检验这块还能赚点钱我估计，不过项目也在逐渐枯竭。

作者: 8080 时间: 13-3-2015 00:39
本帖最后由 8080 于 13-3-2015 01:24 编辑

bluceyu 发表于 13-3-2015 00:13
不知道8080是在开什么船现在？拖轮还是别的？能说说你见到的景象吗？
我是海事相关设计类的，最近都没什么 ...

我在做动力定位的船，新公司拿到一个Gorgan项目的九个月的合同，估计会拖一点，但一旦Gorgan项目一投产（可能今年内第一条线会投产），万多个人会失业（据讲投产后只需三，五百号人）。这万多个人就是万多个家庭失去主要收入和支柱。以现在的石油天然气和矿业，失业了三五年内在澳洲找工/找同样的工真的不乐观。身边矿业石油/天然气/电焊工失业一年的大把。
我上一个公司的同事，很多没能来这个公司已经快半年没工作了，今天打电话给我说找不到活，海外也找不到同样的工作，钱要用光了，准备去开出租车再不行就做钟点工了。
希望我这条船的这合同会延期一段时间，渡过这三五年的底潮。不过我房贷不到半年就还清了，澳洲没活干去海外赚生活费也不会担心银行收房。
你也得当心，我对海事设计不乐观，这边炒人是无预兆的，三点项目完成，三点半宣布炒人算比较人道的了，我上个公司就这么办的，不过我早预感到危机，提前就找公找到了现在这个公司，等着做完上个项目到现在这个公司来。我那些资质，经验差的同事可惨了。绝大多数到现在还没找到工。
估计好多财团在等着两三年后跳楼价收购西澳破产的矿公司。（据讲Gina今年不赞助Sculpture by the Sea exhibition on Cottesloe beach. 看来有可能也钱紧了）

作者: retirement 时间: 13-3-2015 00:55
真的那些小矿倒闭，多数就是被两大吃掉，别的还是垫底。至于砍800，目前反正合同的是基本结束都滚蛋，不再续，固定员工主要还是看内陆矿站情况，现在开矿车，火车的都不好办，越来越多要换成driverlsee的。

作者: 8080 时间: 13-3-2015 15:42

retirement 发表于 13-3-2015 00:55
真的那些小矿倒闭，多数就是被两大吃掉，别的还是垫底。至于砍800，目前反正合同的是基本结束都滚蛋，不再 ...

是的，我很赞同。

作者: bluceyu 时间: 13-3-2015 16:42
本帖最后由 bluceyu 于 13-3-2015 16:47 编辑

8080 发表于 13-3-2015 00:39
我在做动力定位的船，新公司拿到一个Gorgan项目的九个月的合同，估计会拖一点，但一旦Gorgan项目一投产 ...

恩，是的，情况不容乐观。
我们公司也接了不少Gorgan检验的活，据说快结束了。我们设计的现在只剩下3个人了，活临时多了就叫Part time的来顶一下。陆续做了2年多的Dampier floating deck 项目也在做最后稳性报告了，真不知道未来还能有什么稍微大点的项目......
这个冬天会很冷啊。

难道这是让我又要杀回新加坡的节奏？丫的

作者: bluceyu 时间: 13-3-2015 16:44
我看最近连FMG 的股价都跌到新低了，一些小矿业公司如RNI 都快跌没了.....

作者: 8080 时间: 14-3-2015 06:03

bluceyu 发表于 13-3-2015 16:42
恩，是的，情况不容乐观。
我们公司也接了不少Gorgan检验的活，据说快结束了。我们设计的现在只剩下3 ...

估计未来5到十年，澳洲没有大的新的矿业，石油和天然气项目。
所以除了对已完工项目的维护，保养和定期检验。设计和建设会低潮至少五到十年。

作者: bluceyu 时间: 14-3-2015 14:34
看来要转行了，呵呵

作者: samchen 时间: 14-3-2015 16:12
楼上的太悲观了。。。

作者: retirement 时间: 14-3-2015 16:14
坡县明显比这好，至少比破寺是要好，现在。

作者: samchen 时间: 14-3-2015 16:31

retirement 发表于 14-3-2015 16:14
坡县明显比这好，至少比破寺是要好，现在。

坡县气候不好啊。。。还是破寺好

作者: retirement 时间: 14-3-2015 16:52

samchen 发表于 14-3-2015 16:31
坡县气候不好啊。。。还是破寺好

钱多事少离家近，气候，能当饭吃么

作者: 8080 时间: 14-3-2015 18:53
本帖最后由 8080 于 14-3-2015 18:58 编辑

samchen 发表于 14-3-2015 16:31
坡县气候不好啊。。。还是破寺好

坡县=Point Samson?你这种是安全的，产得越多，检验越多，羡慕

作者: 8080 时间: 14-3-2015 18:56
骂谢国忠的“铁矿石价格五，六十美金是应该的”是错误的同学面壁了没？

作者: bluceyu 时间: 14-3-2015 20:06
坡县=Singapore.
就是个戏称。

作者: retirement 时间: 14-3-2015 23:18

8080 发表于 14-3-2015 18:53
坡县=Point Samson?你这种是安全的，产得越多，检验越多，羡慕

同意楼上

看行政级别就知道，坡是县级，破是村级，孰优孰劣一幕了然了吧

作者: lowprofile 时间: 14-3-2015 23:59
本帖最后由 lowprofile 于 14-3-2015 21:06 编辑

8080 发表于 12-3-2015 21:39
我在做动力定位的船，新公司拿到一个Gorgan项目的九个月的合同，估计会拖一点，但一旦Gorgan项目一投产 ...

一万多个都是珀斯本地的？而且你们公司有项目就招一万多，没项目就都裁掉，那基本员工有多少?

看了你的帖子敢情高收入行业就是跟经济周期高度相关，随时得找好下家啊，压力也不小。。。

作者: 8080 时间: 15-3-2015 07:54

lowprofile 发表于 14-3-2015 23:59
一万多个都是珀斯本地的？而且你们公司有项目就招一万多，没项目就都裁掉，那基本员工有多少?

看了 ...

不是我们公司，是在Barrow岛上各行各业搞建设的有8千左右，还得加加上FO休假的

作者: bluceyu 时间: 24-3-2015 11:54
最新消息，Mermaid Marine Australia 最近也在裁员。我现在比谁都愿意付高油价，只要行业能好起来。

作者: samchen 时间: 24-3-2015 16:22
本帖最后由 samchen 于 24-3-2015 16:31 编辑

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewes ... ts-loom-at-chevron/
CHEVERON 裁员2000

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015- ... 10?section=business
woodside裁员300

作者: 8080 时间: 24-3-2015 18:08

samchen 发表于 24-3-2015 16:22
https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/26782159/big-job-cuts-loom-at-chevron/
CHEVERON 裁员2000

作者: lowprofile 时间: 24-3-2015 22:52
这个行业基本到底了，否极泰来

作者: 8080 时间: 25-3-2015 00:11
本帖最后由 8080 于 25-3-2015 00:14 编辑

lowprofile 发表于 24-3-2015 22:52
这个行业基本到底了，否极泰来

这个还刚开始，
我所知道的是现在巴罗岛上有8000人在搞建设，再加FO的几千人。估计做Gorgon项目的有万多人。据说完工后只需要300到500人操作，万多个人要失业，还有接下来的Wheatstone项目也快完工。所以千万别盲目乐观。

作者: 8080 时间: 25-3-2015 00:15
危机来如山倒，危机去如抽丝

作者: samchen 时间: 25-3-2015 00:31
By the time we get to the end of 2016, there will be a severe oil shortage and the oil price will have to rise to encourage more production into the market.

Drop in drill rig numbers the 'start of turnaround'

The oversupply was largely driven by the rapid development of America's shale oil industry.

The industry transformed America's energy market from being a net importer of oil to a potential exporter.

The world's largest oil supplier, OPEC, was tipped to cut production late last year in response to falling prices but it decided not to, in an effort to knock out high-cost shale producers in the US.

The tussle for global oil market share is impacting on producers around the globe and those in Australia have not been immune.

Contractors, service providers and big oil and gas producers have been forced to scale back exploration, cut spending and slash jobs.

Woodside has today announced it would cut 300 jobs in response to the weak market conditions and imposed a freeze on pay rises for most of this year.

Mr Strachan said while it was going to be a rocky ride for producers and explorers over the next year, the drop in drill rig numbers was the start of a turnaround in market conditions.

"Slowly we're seeing the amount of oil production peaking in most of the shale basins, all that production is now basically on a plateau, Mr Strachan said.

"In May that will start to fall away quite dramatically, even in April, we're going to see small falls in those basins.

"By June, July we should see production falling by about maybe 160,000 barrels of oil a day and if that continues through until the middle of next year, so about 14 months from today, oil production out of the United States will have fallen by about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"So that will really take away any supply surplus that there might be in the North American market."

Mr Strachan said in the meantime companies would bunker down to weather the storm, which would eventually lead to an increase in demand for oil.

"We're basically going to have an 18 month to two-year hiatus in new project development and financing," he said.

"So by the time we get to the end of 2016, there will be a severe oil shortage and the oil price will have to rise to encourage more production into the market.

"It will take time before these drilling rigs can get back into action and just start producing oil and not just in the United States but here in Australia as well," Mr Strachan said.

作者: bluceyu 时间: 27-3-2015 00:49
没有别的产业来接纳这些有技能的人，到时候他们就要到别的地方去，这就是一个国家产业不完整的代价。
这个冬天，会很冷

作者: 8080 时间: 2-4-2015 16:49
铁矿石跌破50美金:

From http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015- ... -50-dollars/6367020

Miners set for falls as iron ore breaks below $US50 a tonne

By finance reporter Elysse Morgan

Updated about 6 hours ago

Photo: Iron ore prices have fallen below $US50 a tonne for the first time in a key index's six-and-a-half-year history. (AAP: BHP Billiton)

Map: Australia
The iron ore price dropped to a fresh low overnight and took resource stocks and the Australian dollar down with it.

A supply glut and no signs of a pick-up in Chinese demand sent the key iron ore price into unchartered territory of $US49 a tonne.

ANZ believes there is little chance of a quick turnaround.

"The recently announced mortgage policy measures and better-than-expected PMI data from China have done little to support the iron ore price," he said.

作者: 西澳电工 时间: 3-4-2015 14:48
嘿嘿，真长，看不懂，感觉好玩好玩。

作者: 西澳电工 时间: 3-4-2015 14:48
对于这种刚发的帖子，我总是毫不犹豫的顶了。如果火了就是个前排，可以混个脸熟，说不定谁好心就给粉了…稳赚不赔；如果沉了就感觉是我弄沉的，很有成就感，还能捞经验。

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