nlb 发表于 27-11-2014 12:20:07

新一轮矿业风暴又要来咯

不是啥好消息 https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/25603497/bhp-suppliers-caught-in-us4b-savings-squeeze/

BHP Billiton is putting pressure on its suppliers to accept contract cuts of as much as 25 per cent as it seeks to shave $US4 billion ($4.6 billion) from its annual operating costs in the next two years.

所有的supplier不照办的话,就有可能丢合同了。对矿业和矿业对口公司的打击是巨大的, 深度裁员无法避免,而且不光是这些矿业巨头了。

身在矿区,感觉明显。

据当地消息说,12月底BHP还要再来一轮Job Cuts,Rio也有着盘算。

前几天DSL,(Rio旗下盐矿商,120人团队直接干走了18个人,无任何征兆)

Karratha常住人口掉到15k,高峰的时候小30k吧。Port Hedland貌似短期内还算稳定,on-going 的 projects还不少,但是空房遍地。我住的block 14个3室的units,BHP的房子占8户全空....

Samuel_ChenSJ 发表于 27-11-2014 13:33:47

:(山雨欲来风满楼啊!

我的霍巴特 发表于 27-11-2014 13:39:54

出来混,迟早要还的。

davidmouse 发表于 27-11-2014 13:53:15

风暴不是坏事,把这些年的水分挤挤干。让来西澳的淘金掠夺者都回去吧;矿企也重组下,那些高成本的企业都淘汰掉,今后的市场还在。只是时间问题。

游兵 发表于 27-11-2014 14:11:58

OPERATION不会停,基础消费量还是很大的,现在要砍的最多是预建和在建PROJECT,这事08年时就砍过一次,BHP投资$20亿以上的镍矿一下就关了,现在再差也不会比那时更惨.

要是对中国发展有信心,就看好澳矿长期吧!

游兵 发表于 27-11-2014 14:12:38

LZ在哪个矿?

QA1439 发表于 27-11-2014 14:58:17

中国的铁矿石进口短期内绝无好转可能了。
房地产是板上钉钉不能继续玩下去了。光靠造高铁和造公路能才能消耗掉多少钢铁。
国内的钢铁企业产能严重过剩,都趴在地上了。
我老家就是钢铁企业所在地,情况很不乐观,工人工资砍掉不少。很惨很惨。

civil3d 发表于 27-11-2014 16:51:04

看来没有最惨,只有更惨啊。。。

nlb 发表于 27-11-2014 17:32:27

个人觉得,长远来说钢铁需求还是硬的,阿三据说过个10年20年能顶上来。但是短期矿业是不会多好的,所为短期说的也是5年以上的事,感觉。

我在黑港,矿港吧,也不算newman之类真正的矿区。

诸神的黄昏 发表于 27-11-2014 18:54:19

davidmouse 发表于 27-11-2014 13:53
风暴不是坏事,把这些年的水分挤挤干。让来西澳的淘金掠夺者都回去吧;矿企也重组下,那些高成本的企业都淘 ...

没错!

诸神的黄昏 发表于 27-11-2014 18:54:38

davidmouse 发表于 27-11-2014 13:53
风暴不是坏事,把这些年的水分挤挤干。让来西澳的淘金掠夺者都回去吧;矿企也重组下,那些高成本的企业都淘 ...

没错!!

nlb 发表于 27-11-2014 19:10:15

重组的idea是不错,不过问题是重组几年才能反弹呢,澳洲要是矿业低迷5年,不知道多少人喝西北风。重组了之后还是寡头赚钱,对老百姓也没啥好处。

活在食物链低端的大众们,还不是希望太平些的好。

hec66 发表于 27-11-2014 22:41:47

矿价无论怎么跌,也跌不到两托的成本价,人家裁裁员更健康。最傻逼的是诸如中信中冶中钢鞍钢武钢这几年新近的项目,还都尼玛磁铁矿,项目各个成本在百元甚至以上,何年才能翻身?

西澳海豚 发表于 27-11-2014 22:59:22

铁矿这一波的风头已过,这是确定的!

不过,矿物就是这样,十年河东,十年河西。

每条狗都有他的一天----------- 何时轮到我们阿?:L:L:L

civil3d 发表于 27-11-2014 23:15:36

西澳瓶鼻海豚 发表于 27-11-2014 22:59
铁矿这一波的风头已过,这是确定的!

不过,矿物就是这样,十年河东,十年河西。


。。。。。。。无语,难道是无奈的抗议吗?

AUS_BRIGHT 发表于 27-11-2014 23:22:54

看样子,佩斯是不能去了!

saifen 发表于 27-11-2014 23:29:30

身在铁矿,不知道还能坚持多久啊,看来要捂紧荷包,准备好过冬得粮食了

8080 发表于 28-11-2014 03:33:40

Jobs in doubt in Koolan collapse

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/25627312/jobs-in-doubt-in-koolan-collapse/

Disaster has struck again at the worst possible time for Mount Gibson Iron, with its Koolan Island mine flooding as iron ore dipped beneath $US70/t for the first time in more than five years.
The high-grade mine is now flooded to sea level after a section of its sea wall slumped on Tuesday, the third time in a month the wall has moved. While earlier slumps had left the wall strong enough to withstand the Kimberley high tide, on Tuesday night a section of the wall sank below the tide mark and the pit flooded.
Mount Gibson said yesterday it was still assessing the impact of the disaster. But the 2km-long pit is fully flooded, throwing doubt over the immediate future of the mine and its 350 workers.
All non-essential work was suspended yesterday, as Mount Gibson's technical teams assessed the damage to the sea wall and how best to fix the problem.
With an average reserve grade of 63.9 per cent iron ore, Koolan is the jewel in Mount Gibson's crown.
It was ramping up to a 4 million tonne a year export rate when the first wall slump interrupted production in October. A second incident this month forced Mount Gibson to downgrade its financial year production guidance by 600,000t, to between 6mt and 6.4mt, saying it would cost $5 million to $10 million and take three months to fix the damage.
Mount Gibson requested a trading halt yesterday.
Fellow mid-tier producer BC Iron also took action in response to the falling iron ore price.
Iron ore fell to $US69.60 on Tuesday night. The falling Aussie dollar brought some relief, falling to four-year lows, but benchmark iron ore prices for 62 per cent ore still sit at only $81.60.
BC Iron announced three of its non-executive directors would step down, including founding managing director Mike Young, Malcolm McComas and relative newcomer Peter Wilshaw, who only joined the board a year ago. The remaining non-executive directors had agreed to pay cuts.
BC Iron chairman Tony Kiernan said the cuts were a response to the tough conditions.
Despite Tuesday night's iron ore price falls, BC Iron shares ended yesterday 1.5¢ higher at 58.5¢. Mineral Resources gained 5¢ to $7.79. BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto posted strong gains, with BHP up 43¢, or 1.3 per cent, to $32.53. Rio shares gained 98¢, or 1.7 per cent, to $58.39.
Fortescue Metals Group ended down 2¢ at $2.79, and Atlas Iron dropped 1¢ to 19.5¢.

circleyue 发表于 28-11-2014 10:43:58

本帖最后由 circleyue 于 28-11-2014 11:03 编辑

铁矿没到底呢,很多中小矿还在坚持,大矿拼命挖,价格会不断降。
等到关得差不多了,就到底了。
或大胆预测一下,等到连FORTESCUE METALS这样的都不行了,那么就见底了。

所以大家要准备好,要flexible。

Mentally flexible (敢于学习新的东西,敢于跳出不看好的行业,敢于冒风险,敢于be uncomfortable。。。。)
Financial flexible (余粮留足,不浪费,学会plan,有机会也不要犹豫)
and Physically flexible (不要困守,要敢于move,敢于去适应不段变化的社会,树挪死人挪活,这点最不容易做,得别对有家庭的来讲)

这些是别人总结的,自己受益匪浅

游兵 发表于 28-11-2014 13:07:08

nlb 发表于 27-11-2014 17:32
个人觉得,长远来说钢铁需求还是硬的,阿三据说过个10年20年能顶上来。但是短期矿业是不会多好的,所为短期 ...

:lol船运的???

游兵 发表于 28-11-2014 13:08:22

circleyue 发表于 28-11-2014 10:43
铁矿没到底呢,很多中小矿还在坚持,大矿拼命挖,价格会不断降。
等到关得差不多了,就到底了。
或大胆预 ...

:lol说的好........要是FMG都倒了,那BHP和RIO都接近成本线了,那几乎就是底部!

8080 发表于 28-11-2014 19:54:07

本帖最后由 8080 于 28-11-2014 20:07 编辑

8080 发表于 28-11-2014 03:33
Jobs in doubt in Koolan collapse

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/25627312/jobs-in-doubt-in-k ...

实际上包括不在矿区FO在家的,和在珀斯办公室的,其他矿区的,可能有上千个家庭会受到影响。他们的股票停牌到今天还没有开盘。
他们隔壁的Cookatoo几个月前就出问题了。
个人估计很多小矿会很惨。
石油价格个人认为是因为中俄签了4万亿大单。又中了中国买啥啥涨,中国不买就掉。
再加中国深入反腐,估计内奸小了和收敛了。再注意中国和美国签的减排协议,个人估计铁矿石和钢铁产业是在中国现在和未来是夕阳产业
冬天终于来了,这个冬天会很冷,这个冬天不会短。

mzhu4 发表于 28-11-2014 23:09:21

在矿上的人看来不少啊:lol:lol:lol

8080 发表于 28-11-2014 23:49:54

本帖最后由 8080 于 29-11-2014 00:25 编辑

8080 发表于 28-11-2014 19:54
实际上包括不在矿区FO在家的,和在珀斯办公室的,其他矿区的,可能有上千个家庭会受到影响。他们的股票 ...

现在直接裁200多个,这估计是固定员工,没包括临时工,服务的,合同工,合约工,承包商。

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-11-28/iron-ore-miner-mt-gibson-stands-down-200-staff/5926986

Iron ore miner Mt Gibson stands down more than 200 staff in WA's Kimberley

More than 200 staff have been stood down without pay at Mt Gibson's iron ore mine in Western Australia's Kimberley.

Work at the Koolan Island mine, off the coast north of Derby, was suspended earlier this week after a sea wall slumped, flooding the main pit.

Mt Gibson CEO Jim Beyer said it was a disappointing but unavoidable move.

"We had allocated our workforce to other activities around the island while we were working to basically re-stabilise and reinstate an effective sea wall," he said.

"Unfortunately the failure has made it clear that for at least some period of time, we are not going to have sufficient work to keep our workforce employed."

The mine employs 350 people, two thirds of whom will be sent home over the weekend.

Employees with accrued leave have been told they can use it if they wish.

Mr Beyer said the remaining staff would stay on the island to carry out maintenance jobs and earthmoving.

"We have a total of 360 people who work at Koolan Island and approximately two thirds of those are in the process of being stood down now, and there's another third that we will keep that are doing some critical activity," he said.

It comes as iron ore prices hover around five year lows of about $US70 a tonne, shrinking the profits of miners and squeezing their margins.

The iron ore price has slumped almost 50 per cent this year on the back of weaker demand from China and an oversupply in the market.

Australia's big miners have been accused of flooding the market in a bid to knock out higher cost Chinese producers, but it was also eroding the bottom-line of smaller miners.

Mr Beyer said the iron ore price and its future outlook would weigh on it decision to restart operations.

"When we look to make the decision on the financials on the re-start we will be taking into account today's iron ore price but also more the point we will also be taking into account what we see as being the outlook for iron ore," he said.

Bell Potter Securities broker Giuliano Sala Tenna said the tough market conditions would hold the company back.

"Mount Gibson may just take their time particularly coming into the Christmas, New Year period," he said.

"It may not be a great motivation for them to speed up the process to re-start mining operations, particularly when the iron ore price is so weak at the moment."

He remained confident operations would resume at some point, given the high quality of the mine.

"That's their flagship mine site there, so I'd be surprised if they didn't mine again from Koolan Island," he said.

"I think it will be resolved, I think it's a mine site that's known to experience these sorts of set backs, it's obviously disappointing, it's obviously come at a bad time for them."

Mr Beyer said the company was now assessing how much it would cost to repair the damage.

"We're still assessing our options to return an effective sea wall and how long that might take, and as we get some more clarity on the over the next week or so, then we can start to make some clearer decisions on the workforce in particular," he said.

The company's shares will remain in a trading halt for the next week until it makes an announcement on the project's future.

8080 发表于 29-11-2014 00:36:18

裁员是没有任何佂兆

8080 发表于 29-11-2014 00:38:13

本帖最后由 8080 于 5-12-2014 18:26 编辑

裁员200多(2/3)。腥风惨雨,没有任何缓冲和征兆
其实我更倾向于认为整个Koolan岛的矿场会关停。因为花大本钱和长时间修好挡水墙,排完水后,产矿石出来后是亏而不是赚钱。
海平面下一百来米,差不多三峡的贮水高度。
估计某些地质工程师是害人精。成千个家庭,里面很多人都是很出色的专家,都是我的好朋友。

8080 发表于 29-11-2014 01:19:55

本帖最后由 8080 于 29-11-2014 01:36 编辑

From: http://www.businessinsider.com.au/report-fortescue-is-considering-shutting-one-of-its-iron-ore-mines-2014-11

REPORT: Fortescue Is Considering Shutting One Of Its Iron Ore Mines

There is a report today from Standard Bank’s commodities analyst Melinda Moore that iron ore miner Fortescue Metals Group is considering closing its Cloudbreak operation in Western Australia.

In the bank’s commodities note Moore said:

“FMG is rumoured to be (FINALLY) considering reducing its output back to 120 million tonnes from as high as 180mt annualised in some shipment months this year, primarily by closing its higher cost Cloudbreak (40mtpa) mine, focusing on margins rather than volumes – as all miners should now be doing!
“This could reduce the miner’s breakeven price on a China CFR basis from $71/t to below $65/t (savings on costs/moisture) and also assist in significantly reducing market supplies.”

Fortescue has denied the rumour using Twitter to comment.


Cloudbreak was Fortescue’s first mine and is part of the company’s Chichester Hub in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. First ore was shipped from the operation in May 2008 and it currently processes 40 million tonnes a year.

The iron ore price this year has fallen from above $100 a tonne to $68.41 a tonne. The drop is squeezing the margins of all producers – especially the higher cost miners like Fortescue, Atlas Iron and BC Iron.

During the mining investment boom iron ore tonnes increased as companies brought on new supply to take advantage of Chinese demand.

“The four majors alone have contributed 164mt in additional supplies over the past year,” Moore said. “We can also count an additional 25-30mt from the ‘little league’.”

Market forces will eventually weed out higher cost producers and excess supply will right itself as operations scale back tonnes or shut. Fortescue remains exposed to iron ore price fluctuations because of its pure-play status – it’s shares are down about 50% for the year to $2.86 a piece.

“Effectively the market remains oversupplied still by 200mt right now, explaining the current ‘free-fall’,” Moore said.

In another sign that iron ore miners are gearing up to deal with lower commodity prices, Rio Tinto, which is one of the lower cost producers, today deferred making a $1 billion investment decision on its new Silvergrass iron ore mine until the third quarter of 2015 at the earliest.

However, Rio said it will continue to boost production to 330 million tonnes in 2015 and 350 million tonnes by 2017. Additional tonnes will come from existing operations and productivity increases.

8080 发表于 29-11-2014 01:23:59

本帖最后由 8080 于 29-11-2014 01:34 编辑

From:   http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-28/iron-on-fast-forward-as-goldman-sees-risk-of-price-outlook-cut.html

Spending Cuts

Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. (FMG) halved capital expenditure to $650 million in the year through June 2015 from its previous budget of $1.3 billion, joining miners including Rio and BHP in cutting spending. The company’s outlook for shipments for the year is unchanged at 155 million to 160 million tons, the world’s fourth-biggest exporter said today.

Rio, the second-biggest miner, has deferred plans to approve a new $1 billion Australian iron ore mine and lowered its 2014 expenditure estimate. BHP, the largest mining company, has announced that capital outlays will drop to $13 billion in fiscal 2016, down more than 40 percent from 2012.

Ore will drop into the $50s in the third quarter of 2015 and average $65 for the year as a whole, Citigroup Inc. said in a Nov. 11 report which cut price forecasts. The bear market still has a way to go, according to analyst Ivan Szpakowski.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jasmine Ng in Singapore at jng299@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: James Poole at jpoole4@bloomberg.net Thomas Kutty Abraham

8080 发表于 29-11-2014 01:51:20

本帖最后由 8080 于 29-11-2014 01:54 编辑

今日不知明日亊,屋漏偏逢连夜雨,存好余粮好过冬

civil3d 发表于 29-11-2014 15:12:44

裁员完毕会接着招更便宜的廉价劳动力。。。。。都不过时资本家的伎俩罢了
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