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牧马人 发表于 12-12-2014 11:32
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/rba-governor-glenn-stevens-says-australian-dollar-bette ...
汇率0.75还是比较高，澳币是矿业货币，矿业价格狂掉，慢慢的会反映到货币汇率上来。
加上美国复苏，美元强劲，澳洲则慢慢衰退。澳币的下跌之路远未结束。
央行主席其实最担心的是下面这段话：
In some of his toughest comments on record, Mr Stevens hit out at Canberra's failure to "get real" about the budget, warning Australia's AAA rating could be threatened if longer-term tax and spending issues weren't fixed.
Without action, including from Senate crossbenchers, he suggested Australia could within five years find itself forced by international bond markets to adopt more hard-line austerity measures, something that has led to double- and triple-dip recessions in Europe.
“税制改革”和“调整政府支出”是现在最有效的办法，不过个人认为，不管谁在台上都治不好，这是西方社会的顽症，大家伸手拿惯了，没人愿意不拿。不给就哄你下来。
所以，澳洲最后可能要走别人的老路，forced by international bond markets to adopt more hard-line austerity measures, something that has led to double- and triple-dip recessions in Europe.
所以我觉得澳洲应该有一段时间的深度调整，经济学叫 mean reversion
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楼主: nlb
发表于 11-12-2014 21:37:12
