25大技术预言

江南柴进

有点意思：

Top 25 Technology Predictions

By Dave Evans, Chief Futurist, Cisco IBSG Innovations Practice
1.
By 2029, 11 petabytes of storage will be available for $100—equivalent to 600+ years of continuous, 24-hour-per-day, DVD-quality video. (Source: Cisco IBSG, 2009)
2.
In the next 10 years, we will see a 20-time increase in home networking speeds. (Source: Cisco IBSG, 2009)
3.
By 2013, wireless network traffic will reach 400 petabytes a month. Today, the entire global network transfers 9 exabytes per month. (Source: FCC Head Julius Genachowski)
4.
By the end of 2010, there will be a billion transistors per human—each costing one ten-millionth of a cent. (Sources: Intel Corporation; Cisco IBSG, 2006-2009; IBM)
5.
The Internet will evolve to perform instantaneous communication, regardless of distance. (Source: Cisco IBSG, 2009)
6.
The first commercial quantum computer will be available by mid-2020. (Source: Cisco IBSG, 2009)
7.
By 2020, a $1,000 personal computer will have the raw processing power of a human brain. (Sources: Hans Moravec, Robotics Institute, Carnegie Mellon University, 1998; Cisco IBSG, 2006-2009)
8.
By 2030, it will take a village of human brains to match a $1,000 computer. (Sources: Hans Moravec, Robotics Institute, Carnegie Mellon University, 1998; Cisco IBSG, 2006-2009)
9.
By 2050 (assuming a global population of 9 billion), $1,000 worth of computing power will equal the processing power of all human brains on earth. (Sources: Hans Moravec, Robotics Institute, Carnegie Mellon University, 1998; Cisco IBSG, 2006-2009)
10.
Today, we know 5 percent of what we will know in 50 years. In other words, in 50 years, 95 percent of what we will know will have been discovered in the past 50 years.
11.
The world’s data will increase sixfold in each of the next two years, while corporate data will grow fiftyfold. (Source: Technorati)
12.
By 2015, Google will index approximately 775 billion pages of content. (Source: Cisco IBSG, 2009)
Point of View
13.
By 2015, we will create the equivalent of 92.5 million Libraries of Congress in one year. (Source: www.humanproductivitylab.com)
14.
By 2020 worldwide, the average person will maintain 130 terabytes of personal data (today it is ~128 gigabytes). (Source: Cisco IBSG, 2009)
15.
By 2015, movie downloads and peer-to-peer file sharing will explode to 100 exabytes, equivalent to 5 million Libraries of Congress. (Source: www.humanproductivitylab.com)
16.
By 2015, video calling will be pervasive, generating 400 exabytes of data—the equivalent of 20 million Libraries of Congress. (Source: www.humanproductivitylab.com)
17.
By 2015, the phone, web, email, photos, and music will explode to generate 50 exabytes of data. (Source: www.humanproductivitylab.com)
18.
Within two years, information on the Internet will double every 11 hours. (Sources: University of California at Berkeley School of Information Management and Systems; IBM)
19.
By 2010, 35 billion devices will be connected to the Internet (nearly six devices per person on the planet). (Source: Cisco IBSG, 2009)
20.
By 2020, there will be more devices than people online.
21.
With IPv6, there will be enough addresses for every star in the known universe to have 4.8 trillion addresses. (Source: Cisco IBSG, 2009)
22.
By 2020, universal language translation will be commonplace in every device. (Source: Cisco IBSG, 2009)
23.
In the next five years, any surface will become a display. (Source: Cisco IBSG, 2009)
24.
By 2025, teleportation at the particle level will begin to occur. (Source: Cisco IBSG, 2009)
25.
By 2030, artificial implants for the brain will take place. (Source: Cisco IBSG, 2009)

青山

我们这一代人有幸生逢其盛，还是很幸运的。只要别玩砸了，变成最后一代就好。

someonehappy

从某种角度上来说，人对物质的需求真的是无止境的，而且增长速度极快。

用现在的眼光来看，将来科技的发展可能比现在可以想象的更快，但是用将来的眼光来看，科技发展总是还不够快。

没几年以前，用硬盘代替软盘，用dvd代替cd，宽带淘汰了拨号，每次都是大飞跃啊，不过最后的结果是一定会有更高级的需求很快出现，然后新技术就会又一次处于一种尴尬的境地。

从人获得的满足感这个角度来说，科技发展的再快都不一定能让人满足，只有对自己的控制才能让自己知道满足。

所以我的结论是，少看对未来的预测，保持内心的平静，用好ADSL2+，让科学家拼命去吧。

boatzo

人类对信息的需求无止境，不等于所有行业。农业和房地产的发展并不像it业