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By the time we get to the end of 2016, there will be a severe oil shortage and the oil price will have to rise to encourage more production into the market.
Drop in drill rig numbers the 'start of turnaround'
The oversupply was largely driven by the rapid development of America's shale oil industry.
The industry transformed America's energy market from being a net importer of oil to a potential exporter.
The world's largest oil supplier, OPEC, was tipped to cut production late last year in response to falling prices but it decided not to, in an effort to knock out high-cost shale producers in the US.
The tussle for global oil market share is impacting on producers around the globe and those in Australia have not been immune.
Contractors, service providers and big oil and gas producers have been forced to scale back exploration, cut spending and slash jobs.
Woodside has today announced it would cut 300 jobs in response to the weak market conditions and imposed a freeze on pay rises for most of this year.
Mr Strachan said while it was going to be a rocky ride for producers and explorers over the next year, the drop in drill rig numbers was the start of a turnaround in market conditions.
"Slowly we're seeing the amount of oil production peaking in most of the shale basins, all that production is now basically on a plateau, Mr Strachan said.
"In May that will start to fall away quite dramatically, even in April, we're going to see small falls in those basins.
"By June, July we should see production falling by about maybe 160,000 barrels of oil a day and if that continues through until the middle of next year, so about 14 months from today, oil production out of the United States will have fallen by about 1.6 million barrels a day.
"So that will really take away any supply surplus that there might be in the North American market."
Mr Strachan said in the meantime companies would bunker down to weather the storm, which would eventually lead to an increase in demand for oil.
"We're basically going to have an 18 month to two-year hiatus in new project development and financing," he said.
"So by the time we get to the end of 2016, there will be a severe oil shortage and the oil price will have to rise to encourage more production into the market.
"It will take time before these drilling rigs can get back into action and just start producing oil and not just in the United States but here in Australia as well," Mr Strachan said. |
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楼主: 008
发表于 15-3-2015 07:54:30
