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标题: 珀斯在衰退吗？ [打印本页]

作者: 8080 时间: 20-8-2014 00:32
标题: 珀斯在衰退吗？
本帖最后由 8080 于 19-8-2014 23:33 编辑

最近感觉珀斯和澳洲的失业率在上升，珀斯的住房空置率在快速上升，珀斯版块现在都快变成了房屋出租版块了。
今天查了一下矿业重镇Karratha和黑德兰的房价，发现它们的平均房价比一年前大约掉了30万。个人预计未来三，五年西澳的矿业和天然气基本没有Boom的可能。假设在珀斯和西澳买了投资房又租不出去，还得付房贷，那真是个很大的负担，还有万一失业的可能。或是买了个100多万的投资房子，发现好不容易租出去却又只能租个500每周，那还是很不合算的同时也是把自己置于很危险的境地的。
感觉珀斯版块，Freeo现在快没人气了。
个人感觉珀斯在衰退，西澳在衰退，澳洲在衰退。
现在明白了四大行为啥把五年的固定利率降到4.99%，估计他们的精算师预计未来五年澳洲经济不太可能有Boom。
元芳，你怎么看呢！

作者: retirement 时间: 20-8-2014 01:05
是在衰退,很多人都走了。

作者: 相关部门 时间: 20-8-2014 02:27
占个座，还想着以后争取去perth。。。

作者: 8080 时间: 20-8-2014 09:07

retirement 发表于 20-8-2014 00:05
是在衰退,很多人都走了。

我很想搬到东边去，因小孩快要高中毕业了。没法动。
除了那些在公司里上班的，像我们这种FIFO的，完全没必要住在珀斯。

作者: 西澳海豚 时间: 20-8-2014 10:27
这是肯定的，QANTAS 飞 KALGOORLIE 航班从每天三班减为每天两班，身边也不乏（移出）的朋友。

西澳的主要经济命脉是矿业，矿价低迷，受到冲击将会是整体性的。

往好的地方想，失业率也不是特别高，就一般程度，大多数人还是有工作的。

作者: 牧马人 时间: 20-8-2014 10:57
经济总是有起有落，房价下降正是一部分人入手的好机会阿

作者: 西澳海豚 时间: 20-8-2014 11:30

牧马人发表于 20-8-2014 07:57
经济总是有起有落，房价下降正是一部分人入手的好机会阿

我一直对澳洲这种，增值缓慢，利息高昂，租房青黄不接，增值税金不低的投资房市抱持著谨慎态度。

事实上rp data统计也证明了，有一半以上的投资客是赚不了钱的，不要再被10多年前的 double boom 给欺瞒了

这种事情不大可能再发生了～～

作者: urban2000 时间: 20-8-2014 12:38
房东准备卖房，个人筹划去东部。

作者: urban2000 时间: 20-8-2014 12:59
不过有个朋友去悉尼几个月又跑回来了，吓死我了

作者: 毕业十年 时间: 20-8-2014 13:07

urban2000 发表于 20-8-2014 09:59
不过有个朋友去悉尼几个月又跑回来了，吓死我了

为啥又跑回来了我也有东移的杂念啊
不知道那边是个啥情况

作者: tulip_liu 时间: 20-8-2014 13:41
投资东部没错的

作者: madrista 时间: 20-8-2014 16:44

urban2000 发表于 20-8-2014 11:38
房东准备卖房，个人筹划去东部。

准备啥时候启程啊？

东部悉尼就算了，我身边好多悉尼来的朋友都说悉尼太乱了。如果是墨尔本或布里斯班，还不错。

作者: 荷塘月色 时间: 20-8-2014 17:25

作者: kevinwei2005 时间: 20-8-2014 17:56
珀斯在转型，从深度依赖矿业到其他行业

作者: Tecmia 时间: 20-8-2014 21:05
perth矿业的衰退一直在持续着，就像高烧开始退烧一样。
先是核心矿山，再是外围配套，甚至是风马牛不相及的Alfesco行业也是一塌糊涂。
单一型的经济就是这样。大家会慢慢前仆后继跳楼。
唯一不变的是perth的蓝天，哎，可惜不能当饭吃！

作者: lowprofile 时间: 20-8-2014 22:44
期待珀斯平均房价掉30w，那就是进军subiaco的大好时机了。

作者: lowprofile 时间: 20-8-2014 22:49
本帖最后由 lowprofile 于 20-8-2014 19:54 编辑

矿业高薪的一部分根本原因就是周期性，高风险高回报，有计划的人应该是以丰补歉。东部就算工作机会多点儿，也很轻易被人口基数抵消了，同时房价也不是普通人能承受的。
珀斯市场上现在出租房很多，除了人口流出的原因以外，还有很大一部分是趁利率低买了自住房的人分租降低成本。。。

作者: lowprofile 时间: 20-8-2014 22:58

毕业十年发表于 20-8-2014 10:07
为啥又跑回来了我也有东移的杂念啊
不知道那边是个啥情况

就去过悉尼，看看华人区，居住条件跟上海差不多的，house是奢侈品。

作者: eagerbeaver 时间: 20-8-2014 23:03
Perth和我2年前来的时候确实不能比了。不过只要澳洲的经济还依赖矿业，Perth应该比起东部差不到哪里去.

作者: 9clock 时间: 20-8-2014 23:05
大家换个思路，澳洲就这么几个城市，除了PERTH，我看不出来还有哪个大城市能再吸引大资金投入。

作者: lowprofile 时间: 20-8-2014 23:31

9clock 发表于 20-8-2014 20:05
大家换个思路，澳洲就这么几个城市，除了PERTH，我看不出来还有哪个大城市能再吸引大资金投入。

说的很对，否极泰来

作者: retirement 时间: 21-8-2014 00:49
布村,呵呵。我个人是有点反感在主版发广告,明明专门有地方可以发的。当然可以理解想租出房子賺点收入,但搞得和aupeople一样那这论坛也没啥意思了。希望版主们还是要采取措施。至于房价跌三十万,那是做梦,普通住宅要能平均跌十万我就再买一套。

作者: madrista 时间: 21-8-2014 02:33

retirement 发表于 20-8-2014 23:49
布村,呵呵。我个人是有点反感在主版发广告,明明专门有地方可以发的。当然可以理解想租出房子賺点收入,但搞 ...

同意，珀斯的房地产市场还是比较健康的

作者: mzhu4 时间: 21-8-2014 13:33

lowprofile 发表于 20-8-2014 21:44
期待珀斯平均房价掉30w，那就是进军subiaco的大好时机了。

呵呵，醒醒开始准备搬砖了

作者: angelar8 时间: 21-8-2014 21:33
提示: 作者被禁止或删除, 无法发言

西澳瓶鼻海豚发表于 20-8-2014 10:30
我一直对澳洲这种，增值缓慢，利息高昂，租房青黄不接，增值税金不低的投资房市抱持著谨慎态度。

事实 ...

同意！！在澳洲投资房子除了抵税，没看到什么好处。

作者: angelar8 时间: 21-8-2014 21:34
提示: 作者被禁止或删除, 无法发言 东部也住不起啊，房租和房价都吓死人了~~

作者: lowprofile 时间: 21-8-2014 21:38

mzhu4 发表于 21-8-2014 10:33
呵呵，醒醒开始准备搬砖了

上周搬了一千块免费的砖。。。

作者: nlb 时间: 22-8-2014 16:48
东边就是GC和BNE吧，峰会来了，王建林和绿城又要投，还是能繁荣一下的

作者: eagerbeaver 时间: 22-8-2014 21:59

西澳瓶鼻海豚发表于 20-8-2014 10:30
我一直对澳洲这种，增值缓慢，利息高昂，租房青黄不接，增值税金不低的投资房市抱持著谨慎态度。

事实 ...

个人觉得澳洲的房产还是有看头的:人口不断增加，新移民涌入; 而且没有地税，持有成本低。当然，现在不是买房的好时机。
不过，高涨的物业提高了社会成本，降低了澳洲在全球的竞争力，冲击了其他行业.

作者: eagerbeaver 时间: 22-8-2014 22:13

nlb 发表于 22-8-2014 15:48
东边就是GC和BNE吧，峰会来了，王建林和绿城又要投，还是能繁荣一下的

个人还是更看好西澳些。澳洲在全球一体化过程中，有实力参与全球竞争的大概也只有矿业和农业了。西澳是今后的经济增长点。
Brisbane和GC，Perth及周边是目前澳洲人口增长最快的两块区域。我看过Perth和Brisbane增长速度，两者相仿。但perth相当一部分是海外移民，又以技术移民为主，也就是说大多数过来的是冲着工作机会。Brisbane新增人口大多数是澳洲本地interstate migration，我不知道这其中有多少是退休的baby boomers，就像美国人退休后喜欢搬Florida一样，假如退休人士比例比较高的话，那两种Population growth那种价值更高也就一目了然了.

作者: Feng616 时间: 23-8-2014 19:59
eagerbreaver, 你的那段话最后两句没看懂, 你的意思是布市如果是退休人口增加,并没优势是吗, 谢谢

作者: maggie2007 时间: 23-8-2014 20:07
悉尼房价还在涨啊，今天去看个很小面积的三房house，居然也要80W了，两个月前地比他大的四房同一条街比他新的才75W，无语了。。。。。。

作者: Tecmia 时间: 23-8-2014 20:42
悉尼的房价还在涨，在这样的背景下，买房是升值的（不管是什么房子）；
坛子里曾经有人说过：悉尼是国际土豪的避险城市，如果真是这样的话，楼上80W的三房明年说不定就是100W了，你转手卖出去，看看收益率是都少？一般而言，悉尼的房子10年~15年翻番。所以，。。。
看看天朝帝都的房子，12年前北前四环是50W（两居），现在是500W。这是怎样的投资回报啊！所以说，还是要买房。。。
不要抱怨，赶紧出手！

作者: Jessejob 时间: 31-8-2014 00:19
求推荐工作，挣钱买房子

作者: 8080 时间: 7-9-2014 10:59
本帖最后由 8080 于 23-9-2014 17:18 编辑

估计铁矿石价格的底点应是明年或甚至是后年，因它需要时间来反映和消化这些影响。

上周好像铁矿石掉到大约85了。最低掉到80以下基本上是确定，最低掉到70是有可能的。

有些公司又在计划裁员了。
裁员减支后估计BHP和RIO可能他们的生产成本会降到35以下，卖70还赚一半多。

做生意总是有起落的。逢涨莫赶，逢跌莫懒！留得青山在，不怕没材烧。所以现在存好余粮过东，公司和个人生存/活下去是最重要的。

西澳2014/2015的预算会很吃紧呀，洲长又在抗议GST只能拿37%回来，一个洲养七个，连昆士兰好像都从西澳拿了5亿多的GST。更严重的它的预算案是建立在铁矿石均价大约112的模型上的，可现在铁矿石的实际状况可能会在平均80左右。

这些经济砖家拿那么高的工资，连铁矿石均价都估计错得这么离谱。

铁矿石2014/2015均价想高于95除非温总二号的4万亿。

作者: ashanadsl 时间: 7-9-2014 13:34
提示: 作者被禁止或删除, 无法发言

作者: lowprofile 时间: 7-9-2014 14:06

8080 发表于 7-9-2014 07:59
估计铁矿石价格的底点应是明年或甚至是后年，因它需要时间来反映和消化这些影响。

上周好像铁矿石掉到大 ...

专家的作用在于锦上添花，如果每天浇冷水谁喜欢他们啊，他们就失业了

作者: 小怪物雪糕 时间: 7-9-2014 14:07
诸位，我书读的少，但是我知道，凡事要相信政府。

作者: circleyue 时间: 7-9-2014 14:26
经济的确不好，不过还是看竞争力，有竞争力比别人强不会有问题，相反可能机会更多。捡漏的机会也更多。

作者: circleyue 时间: 7-9-2014 14:30
房市好久没关注了，不过并不是很差，隔壁卖个房子8天就成交了。利息低，有稳定工作的买房一点问题没有。有稳定工作还是牵扯到竞争力。

作者: circleyue 时间: 7-9-2014 14:37

小怪物雪糕发表于 7-9-2014 13:07
诸位，我书读的少，但是我知道，凡事要相信政府。

政府专家都有自己的小算盘，往往说的，预测的不光不对，而且错很离谱。非主流的，独立的分析很难拿得到。200年来所有的经济危机没有一届政府预测的到，为什么？因为他们就是创造灾难的人。
还是要自己多研究，自己有自己的理解，尽量客观，不要参杂个人感情。
这是我自己的一点理解。

作者: 8080 时间: 7-9-2014 15:58
FROM: http://www.myactimes.com/actimes/plus/view.php?aid=809218

ANZ主席断言“澳大利亚房市火爆局面必定会终结”

时间:2014-09-06来源:澳大利亚时报作者:网管点击: 38 次

【澳大利亚时报讯】9月4日News消息，本周四，即澳大利亚央行行长Glenn Stevens罕见地发出“澳大利亚房产市场存在泡沫风险”之后，澳新银行（ANZ）主席David Gonski也针对本地房产市场的过度资产投资热潮释出警示“房地产市场的火爆不可能一直持续下去，最终会遭遇调整。”

报道称，这位前期货基金主席此间表示“ANZ和所有其他大银行对住宅房产信贷过去所发生过的事情都非常清楚。”

David Gonski对澳大利亚英国商会（Australian British Chamber of Commerce）说“时机一到，调整就会来临。”

“我以为‘傻瓜’才会相信房价会一直处于上涨通道。”耐人寻味的是David Gonski是在目前房市一片大好时作出此番表态的。

根据RP DATA本周公布的数据显示，今年冬季的首府城市房地产市场是自从金融危机以来增长最为强劲的。

截至8月底的过去3个月间，澳大利亚各大城市房价近乎上涨了5-7%，以此强劲的上涨态势换算，今年的房市整体增长将会远超去年的12-16%区间。

对此，储备银行在提交的金融系统质询报告中警告称“房贷市场竞争行为可能会增加金融系统的风险。”

并且一些小型银行、信用社以及建筑商已经敦促联邦政府修改管理条例，大银行的房贷业务可以在现存的管理条例下获得甚为明显的成本优势。
与此同时，David Gonski同时也支持ANZ的亚洲战略，他坦言“为什么市场上有些人认为ANZ经营亚洲市场而比其他同行风险过大？”

“我必须得说，这是非常奇怪的论调，因为我们在澳大利亚以外投资，我们的投资就被认为是更危险的，这显然是错误的观点。”

“我们可以证明好的投资者既在澳大利亚投资也在海外投资，而这正是ANZ目前所正在施行的策略。”他最后讲道。

作者: 8080 时间: 7-9-2014 16:01
FROM: http://www.acproperty.com.au/new ... d-bc64-95cfe14a12fe

央行行长认为有必要采取措施避免房产市场崩盘

14-09-04 12:07:49

欢迎大家转载，考虑到著作权，大家只需注明翻译/评论来自于澳洲家园网和原文地址即可。

据澳洲金融时报9月3日报道，澳洲央行行长Glenn Stevens先生正在警告不断升温的房产市场，认为政府要出台方案来遏制房产泡沫。

在强调低利率政策的弊端之时，Glenn Stevens先生暗示到，允许现有的房产价格继续上升并不能解决根本的经济问题。

他同时也指出，有必要避免银行过度放贷从而减少购房者过度扩张。

“过度房贷将导致未来经济进入衰退期。”他在周三阿德莱德会议上讲到。

“最谨慎的原则是避免经济进入衰退周期。”

“目前来讲，当我们试图减少失业率的时候，不断膨胀的房价并不能解决问题。”

Stevens先生认为，澳洲经济发展委员会的作用就是帮组州政府和联邦政府确保房价上涨能够可持续。

他认为，货币政策不能增加住宅土地的供应，也不能提高建设房屋的供应量来满足日益增长的购房需求。

“其他政策可以做到，如果我们看到信贷放松，而不仅仅是现在住宅价格的上涨，那么会带来令人满意的结果。”

货币政策并不能增加人们所认为的基础设施。

事实上，资金短缺并不是基础设施的绊脚石，关键是调控，风险共享及价格区间等政策要到位。

婴儿潮一代的房产需求

Stevens先生认为，由于婴儿潮一代较为关注他们退休计划，所以他们通常非常热心投资房产市场，其结果可能是对回报非常失望。

他认为，澳洲人口的持续增长将对经济产生持续影响，尤其是众多的婴儿潮一代（主要表现在健康产业）。

他在回答一个问题时指出，婴儿潮一代过度依赖投资性房地产。

“我们可能会将投资性房产看的和退休计划一样重要。”他说。

Stevens先生认为，当人口减少之时还能保持经济的快速发展确实从世界范围来看还没有先例。他认为日本就是个典型的国家。

他同时也认为，澳洲央行在制定货币政策时会比较关注国际事件及美国、欧洲和日本央行所达到的不同阶段，同时还指出，澳洲央行要关注服务型政策的制定，来促进经济稳定。

“我们需要不断衡量我们所处的国际环境，”他在一个关于美国准备先于欧洲和日本改变利率政策的问题时讲到。

“这三个超级大国正在处于不同的轨道上，”他说。

不过，澳洲需要稳定向前发展。

“我们正试图制定正规的服务型政策。”

Stevens先生同时也指出，不断缓解的澳洲劳动力市场正是人们所希望看到的，同时也是未来数年里通胀保持在2%到3%之间的重要因素之一。

“劳动力市场正在向你期待的方向发展，周期性萧条也是在所难免的。”

劳动力成本目前保持2.5%的增长速度。

很明显，劳动力市场正在缓解。

澳洲家园网点评：

最新一期《经济学人》称，澳洲房价被高估33%，央行行长Glenn Stevens先生在之前的央行会议上也指出房价上涨过快，可能面临泡沫风险，于是乎就有人认为是国外投资者尤其是中国投资者炒高房价所致，对国外投资者征收印花税也提上了会议日程。小编认为，房价一路走高是受多重因素的影响，政策的制定要注重实际情况，不光是治标，还要治本。

作者: 8080 时间: 7-9-2014 16:02
最新一期《经济学人》称，澳洲房价被高估33%，央行行长Glenn Stevens先生在之前的央行会议上也指出房价上涨过快，可能面临泡沫风险，于是乎就有人认为是国外投资者尤其是中国投资者炒高房价所致，对国外投资者征收印花税也提上了会议日程。小编认为，房价一路走高是受多重因素的影响，政策的制定要注重实际情况，不光是治标，还要治本。

作者: 8080 时间: 7-9-2014 16:06
FROM: http://www.myactimes.com/actimes/plus/view.php?aid=809225

穆迪针对澳大利亚房产市场发出风险警告

时间:2014-09-06来源:澳大利亚时报作者:网管点击: 91 次

【澳大利亚时报讯】9月4日澳大利亚广播公司消息，本周三，著名信用评级机构穆迪向本地市场发出警告称“澳大利亚银行正在积累高风险的房贷。”

根据银行的监管机构---澳大利亚审慎金融监管局（Australian Prudential Regulation Authority APRA）的数据确认：投资者，只还利息者以及不符合借款资格的贷款案例上升显著，而这些都给银行增加了额外的风险。

对此，穆迪的信贷高级分析师以及副主席Ilya Serov阐述“监管机构已经向银行释放出太多宽松的讯号，以致甚多的高LVR（贷款/价值）贷款大量出现，反过来对银行体系带来更多的风险。”

尽管贷款额度占房产价值90%以上的贷款略有减少（从2013年的14%下降到今年6月的12.5%），但银行增加了其他形式的高风险贷款。

与此同时，APRA 上周公布了截至6月份季度的数据报告，其显示投资房贷款占所有新贷款的37.9%，而在前6年间，投资房贷款的平均比率只有32.6%。

众所周知，投资房贷款的风险更高，因为业主不住在这些房产内，并且也会出现更高的LVR风险。

作者: jimmyking 时间: 7-9-2014 16:36
一个朋友去猫本华人区Glen Waverley附近看房，价格高的离谱。一年半前的房子60万现在90万。

作者: lowprofile 时间: 7-9-2014 19:02

jimmyking 发表于 7-9-2014 13:36
一个朋友去猫本华人区Glen Waverley附近看房，价格高的离谱。一年半前的房子60万现在90万。

昨天hustville三房两卫18层的公寓拍出94w

作者: jimmyking 时间: 7-9-2014 20:16

lowprofile 发表于 7-9-2014 18:02
昨天hustville三房两卫18层的公寓拍出94w

才出龙潭，又入虎穴啊！

作者: 小怪物雪糕 时间: 7-9-2014 20:44
... 聪明人都跟这混论坛；坏蛋都在给政府出主意...
是这么个意思么

作者: 8080 时间: 7-9-2014 22:42

小怪物雪糕发表于 7-9-2014 19:44
... 聪明人都跟这混论坛；坏蛋都在给政府出主意...
是这么个意思么

那是

作者: 我有鼻子 时间: 8-9-2014 15:20
那会儿刚来珀村，在坛子看见个帖子，抱怨来的人太多了，北桥买菜都找不着车位了。俺琢磨着不能给大家添乱，果断不去北桥买菜了
现在人开始往东部走了，貌似又开始担心衰退了。

端起碗吃肉，放下筷子骂娘
端起碗喝粥，放下筷子还是骂娘

作者: lowprofile 时间: 9-9-2014 00:27

我有鼻子发表于 8-9-2014 12:20
那会儿刚来珀村，在坛子看见个帖子，抱怨来的人太多了，北桥买菜都找不着车位了。俺琢磨着不能给大家添乱， ...

我觉得现在这样挺好的，不急不慢的，随处有停车位

作者: icebear 时间: 9-9-2014 00:41

8080 发表于 20-8-2014 08:07
我很想搬到东边去，因小孩快要高中毕业了。没法动。
除了那些在公司里上班的，像我们这种FIFO的，完全没 ...

报昆士兰的大学，你就搬到布里斯本了！

作者: 8080 时间: 12-9-2014 02:12
From: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/ ... c4d8659f90ba2da931d

THE iron ore price, which continues to slide and is hovering at five-year lows, has further to fall, according to China experts.
The price of the steelmaking commodity continued its decline overnight, losing another 1.2 per cent to hit a fresh five-year low of $US82.20 a tonne. The commodity has now lost 40 per cent on the year.
Deutsche Bank’s Hong Kong-based analyst, James Kan, has argued that more production needed to be removed from the market before demand and supply of iron ore moved toward equilibrium.
Mr Kan said the Metallurgical Mines’ Association of China recently told the 2014 China iron ore industry summit that ore production cost had decreased 5 to 10 per cent year-on-year, which he said meant that the iron ore price had more room to fall than expected.
“Iron ore is in over supply both globally and in China. However, we have not seen raw ore production declines yet,” he said.
The analyst added that with 100 million tonnes of excess supply still to be squeezed out, he believed that iron ore prices were still facing headwinds and that further high-cost producers would leave the market.
“We still see raw ore output increases this year compared to last,” he said.
“We are waiting for production cuts and believe the cost curve will move further to
the left, and until these gain momentum, the price has further to fall.”
RBC Capital Markets’ analysts outlined the impact of a continued low iron ore price on Australia’s producers.
BHP Billiton, the world’s largest miner, fares the best, while among the juniors BC Iron
and Mount Gibson are supported by robust balance sheets. A flat $US70 a tonne iron ore price though would erode both of those junior companies’ cash buffer.
RBC’s analyst Chris Drew said that for Andrew Forrest’s Fortescue Metals Group, a $US80 a tonne price would see the miner’s existing cash balance of $US2.4 billion fall to negative $US800m by 2016 and gearing increase from the current 49 per cent to 52 per cent by 2016.
He explained though that this cash depletion incorporated the early repayment of $US1.5bn of the unsecured notes, which the investment bank had modelled over 2015 and 2016.
The latest falls followed a revision to pricing estimates from Goldman Sachs, with analysts at the investment bank also suggesting more pain could be in store.
“The price decline has been dramatic, but a weak demand outlook in China and the structural nature of the surplus make a recovery unlikely,”

Goldman analysts Christian Lelong and Amber Cai wrote in a note titled ‘The End of the Iron Age’.
“Lower prices for iron ore and steel are unlikely to boost demand in a material way. Instead, the day when steel production in China will peak gets ever closer.”

Goldman, while retaining its forecast of $US80 a tonne for 2015, reduced its 2016 forecast to $US79, from $US82, and its 2017 outlook to $US78, from $US85.
The one silver lining in the commodity’s retreat this week for local miners has been a similarly large fall in the value of the Australian dollar.

The unit is now trading comfortably below US92c after holding above the US93c mark as the initial falls in the iron price were realised in recent weeks.

作者: pipiba 时间: 15-9-2014 19:17
周末market city的车位越来越难找了，难道是因为经济不好，大家都不去超市买菜、改去market city了？

作者: lowprofile 时间: 16-9-2014 00:08

pipiba 发表于 15-9-2014 16:17
周末market city的车位越来越难找了，难道是因为经济不好，大家都不去超市买菜、改去market city了？

你说的里面还是外面shopping centre区域？Canningvale现在是华人和印度人热捧的区。。。

作者: 8080 时间: 16-9-2014 03:19
本帖最后由 8080 于 16-9-2014 02:33 编辑

预想中的终于发生了，这对西澳，珀斯和澳洲的铁矿石产业不是个好消息。
将来14条40万吨的船直靠中国！估计中远造的那十条是Vale以前签的合同，直接通过贷款形势转给中远了。
另一方面说明中国的软硬实力还是很强大的了。

From:  http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news ... shipper-cosco.html#

NEWS
OVERVIEW TOP NEWS POPULAR EXCLUSIVE ECONOMY WORLDWIDE OPINION PERSONAL FINANCE TECHNOLOGY POLITICS SUSTAINABILITY LUXURY MARKETS REGIONS INDUSTRIES LEADERS ENTREPRENEURS LAW ENVIRONMENT MARKETS MAGAZINE SPORTS SCIENCE
CHINA
Vale Signs Iron-Ore Agreement With Chinese Shipper Cosco
By Peter Millard
September 12, 2014 10:08 AM EDT

0

Vale (VALE) SA signed an accord with China Ocean Shipping Co. (651) to transport iron-ore with giant vessels known as Valemax as the world’s largest producer seeks to curb costs amid slumping prices of the steel-making ingredient.

Vale will transfer four of its 400,000-metric ton vessels to Cosco, as China’s largest shipper is known, and charter them for 25 years, the Rio de Janeiro-based miner said in a statement today. Cosco will also build 10 vessels of similar size to ship Vale’s iron ore. No financial terms were given.

The Brazilian company started operating Valemax vessels in 2011 in a bid to reduce the transport cost advantage of Australian competitors closer to China. The accord, signed as iron-ore trades near five-year lows, suggests Vale may have overcome difficulties convincing China that anchoring the giant vessels at Chinese ports is safe.

ADVERTISEMENT
“The deal makes sense to us as the company frees up some cash (in tough iron ore markets) and partners with Chinese players to help minimize any issue with the docking of very large ore carriers in China,” Banco BTG Pactual SA analysts Leonardo Correa and Caio Ribeiro said in a note to clients.

Prices of iron-ore, the key ingredient in the production of steel, are down 39 percent this year on signs of slowing Chinese demand and as Vale, BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group increase output, betting higher volumes will force less competitive mines to close. Vale, which plans to double shipments to China in the next five years, supplies 12 percent to 14 percent of the country’s iron ore, Jose Carlos Martins, Vale’s head of ferrous and strategy, said Aug. 8.

Ore with 62 percent content at the Chinese port of Qingdao fell 0.3 percent to $82.38 a dry ton today. Shrinking port inventories may see prices recover to as much as $100 by the end of the year, Vale Chief Executive Officer Murilo Ferreira told reporters today in Beijing.

The “framework agreement” was signed by Ferreira and Cosco Chairman Ma Zehua, according to today’s statement.

To contact the reporter on this story: Peter Millard in Rio de Janeiro at pmillard1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: James Attwood at jattwood3@bloomberg.net Jim Efstathiou Jr.
More News: China, Latin America, Commodities

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作者: 8080 时间: 16-9-2014 03:26
估计新的中美州运河造好后，会进一步降低运输成本。
我没看错的话，现在澳洲去中国铁矿运输比巴西去中国要优势10美金，用Valemax后10-7=3，还剩3美金优势。新的中美洲运河加Valemax不知还有没有优势。

作者: eagerbeaver 时间: 16-9-2014 16:47

8080 发表于 16-9-2014 02:26
估计新的中美州运河造好后，会进一步降低运输成本。
我没看错的话，现在澳洲去中国铁矿运输比巴西去中国要 ...

不光是价格的问题。钢厂设计高炉时需要考虑铁矿石品味的。中国钢厂很多都是引用宝钢模式，宝钢是引进日本新日铁，而新日铁都是按照澳矿的品味来设计高炉的. 换铁矿石得考虑cost benefit study. 几块钱的差异有时未必值得.

作者: 8080 时间: 16-9-2014 17:32
本帖最后由 8080 于 16-9-2014 16:34 编辑

eagerbeaver 发表于 16-9-2014 15:47
不光是价格的问题。钢厂设计高炉时需要考虑铁矿石品味的。中国钢厂很多都是引用宝钢模式，宝钢是引进日本 ...

能否提供一个统计资料,譬喻中国2013年进口的铁矿石, 澳洲占百分之几十,巴西占百分之几十.
应该是巴西比澳洲要低,这估计是前几年Vale下单好像17条40万吨船的原因之一.
希望巴西不会抢掉澳洲的份额.

作者: 深海2010 时间: 16-9-2014 23:24
本帖最后由深海2010 于 16-9-2014 22:32 编辑

eagerbeaver 发表于 16-9-2014 15:47
不光是价格的问题。钢厂设计高炉时需要考虑铁矿石品味的。中国钢厂很多都是引用宝钢模式，宝钢是引进日本 ...

高炉依据澳洲矿的品味？

作者: lowprofile 时间: 16-9-2014 23:33

深海2010 发表于 16-9-2014 20:24
高炉依据澳洲矿的品味？

日本的高炉也是按澳洲矿的标准设计的吧？他们本来就是进口矿的吧

作者: 深海2010 时间: 16-9-2014 23:39
本帖最后由深海2010 于 16-9-2014 22:57 编辑

lowprofile 发表于 16-9-2014 22:33
日本的高炉也是按澳洲矿的标准设计的吧？他们本来就是进口矿的吧

我不是学冶炼的，但是本科时代在宝钢和武钢都实习过几个月。见过不少轧钢中厚板薄板生产线和各类高炉电炉。
说实话我没听说过高炉按照某国矿生产，求解惑。93年时，宝钢的轧钢薄板厂当时厂房都是盖着瓦楞薄板，那个时代宝钢解决了国内洗衣机等板材问题，三百多亿外汇（人民币还是美元记不清了，好像是人民币) 在80年代外汇紧缺的时候，是个大手笔。那是宝钢的优势主要就是薄板。其他的，别的钢厂也能生产。国内后来主要是发展连扎技术。也不清楚80和90年代初年代，中国进口多少澳洲矿(那会中国应该没很多外汇进口铁矿）。因为那些日本生产线主要是80年代建成的。我记忆里，那个项目里薄板连扎是主要的东西，重点不是高炉，也许记忆有误。
宝钢的食堂给实习的学生待遇很好，很怀念那个缺肉时代的宝钢食堂

朦胧的记忆专业科里有点炼钢内容，主要是配方温度控制的影响，真的没听说过还有澳洲矿口味的说法，那个年代很多钢厂也用国内矿。

作者: lowprofile 时间: 17-9-2014 00:04

深海2010 发表于 16-9-2014 20:39
我不是学冶炼的，但是本科时代在宝钢和武钢都实习过几个月。见过不少轧钢中厚板薄板生产线和各类高 ...

有品质的差别吧，我也不是专业学这个的，但是“据传”不同的矿品味不一样

作者: 深海2010 时间: 17-9-2014 00:09
本帖最后由深海2010 于 16-9-2014 23:19 编辑

lowprofile 发表于 16-9-2014 23:04
有品质的差别吧，我也不是专业学这个的，但是“据传”不同的矿品味不一样

矿肯定有铁含量的差别，但没听说过高炉须用某种铁矿。就铁含量而言有贫铁矿和富铁矿。如果对矿砂的含铁比例有要求，完全可以自行调配。很难相信必须要某种铁矿。富矿并不是只有澳洲有。谁家买口炒菜的锅，只能炒澳洲产白菜呢？如果是特种钢，主要要求是去杂质和金属熔化后的成分添加和结晶过程的把握。和铁矿石是什么产地完全无关。
日韩为了本国的环保，大量进口中国的粗钢，进行二次冶炼加工。

作者: retirement 时间: 17-9-2014 00:45
别的不知道,反正我现在这个码头出的矿含量就不一样,主力是58的hiyf和57的rrl以及rrf,别的有但不多,除了铁含量外还有硅和铝的含量问题,当然还有其他微量的元素但那不是重点,估计工艺上还是有讲究具体品种的

作者: 深海2010 时间: 17-9-2014 00:49
本帖最后由深海2010 于 16-9-2014 23:56 编辑

retirement 发表于 16-9-2014 23:45
别的不知道,反正我现在这个码头出的矿含量就不一样,主力是58的hiyf和57的rrl以及rrf,别的有但不多,除了铁含 ...

一个高炉是大设备（不可能专门伺候一种铁矿），可以这炉完了，炼下一炉（矿石成分有点区别），但这和哪国铁矿没啥关系

如果纠结于具体成分，澳洲自己各种矿业公司产的铁矿，就不少于10个品种。中国的高炉伺候那个品种？

如果论铁含量，巴西的最高澳洲其次（出口中国的多为58%左右的），印度的在45-63%不等

作者: pipiba 时间: 17-9-2014 21:03

lowprofile 发表于 15-9-2014 23:08
你说的里面还是外面shopping centre区域？Canningvale现在是华人和印度人热捧的区。。。

就是早市外边，有几家华人店的那个地方

作者: lowprofile 时间: 17-9-2014 21:35

pipiba 发表于 17-9-2014 18:03
就是早市外边，有几家华人店的那个地方

那里每天人都很多啊

作者: 果脯 时间: 18-9-2014 15:25
住的这个building，空了两套，都一个多月了，没租出去

作者: 8080 时间: 18-9-2014 16:23
本帖最后由 8080 于 18-9-2014 15:42 编辑

Unit 空置率高，平均租金下降，从两年前就是公开的秘密了。
house的平均租金下降，空置率上升，也是不争的亊实。
随着一部分人买自住房，矿业热潮消退而导致在珀斯的矿公司工作人员减少，及一些合同的到期，估计以上趋势还会持续一段时间。估计这也是Karratha，Port Hedland平均房价现在掉落大约30万的原因。
这也是我一直不买投资房的原因.
我全家圣诞去东部玩了一圈，才，猛然发现以前我井底观天，东部几大城市，总可找到和珀斯相似的，大家看重的优点。相互间又近，好玩的又多。回中国机票选择多，相对珀斯偏宜。昆达士把珀斯到香港和珀斯到新加坡的航班取消了。
我那些东部的飞进飞出的同事，大多打死都不愿搬家到西澳来.我以前觉得不可思喻，东部玩了一圈后，连我都想挤去东边了。

作者: xiaohu 时间: 18-9-2014 16:55

果脯发表于 18-9-2014 14:25
住的这个building，空了两套，都一个多月了，没租出去

这么夸张？果脯你现在不住UWA那边了吗？我现在就盼着它经济不要那么火，好让我来的时候容易租房子。我可能要明年中才来了。

作者: 8080 时间: 18-9-2014 17:39
本帖最后由 8080 于 18-9-2014 16:41 编辑

FREEOZ网上好象悉尼大学附近都有人在招租.好象流学生也在减少.

作者: 果脯 时间: 18-9-2014 22:37

xiaohu 发表于 18-9-2014 15:55
这么夸张？果脯你现在不住UWA那边了吗？我现在就盼着它经济不要那么火，好让我来的时候容易租房子。我可 ...

我搬到daglish了

作者: lowprofile 时间: 18-9-2014 22:45

果脯发表于 18-9-2014 19:37
我搬到daglish了

你那周租太高了吧。。。

作者: platinum 时间: 21-9-2014 19:24
本帖最后由 platinum 于 1-6-2015 11:44 编辑

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作者: 8080 时间: 23-9-2014 18:22
本帖最后由 8080 于 23-9-2014 17:25 编辑

8080 发表于 7-9-2014 09:59
估计铁矿石价格的底点应是明年或甚至是后年，因它需要时间来反映和消化这些影响。

上周好像铁矿石掉到大 ...

铁矿石掉到80以下/Per Ton

From: http://www.smh.com.au/business/m ... 0140923-10kqaw.html

'Everyone is nervous about the iron ore price', admits Vale

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/m ... .html#ixzz3E7Zjqj2f

Brazilian mining giant Vale has admitted it is nervous about the plunge in iron ore prices below $US80 a tonne as the Chinese government dampens hopes of aggressive policy stimulus to fuel growth.

The benchmark iron ore price for immediate delivery at the port of Tianjin in China slid 2.3 per cent to $US79.80 a tonne on Monday, the lowest price since September 17, 2009, following a 1.6 per cent fall to $US81.70 on Friday.

The sharp falls came after a short-lived rally last week that led the commodity's price higher to more than $US85 a tonne.

Vale's director of strategic planning Stephen Potter said it was always a challenge for large mining companies to work out their exposure to commodities, given structural shifts in powerful economies like China.

"Everyone is nervous about the iron ore price at the moment; are we shifting from heavy industrial (phase) to a consumer-led industrial (phase) in some classical economics professor's views on development, and does that mean China is going to be using less iron ore? Well these are always the challenges for a mining company to decide which commodities it needs to invest in," Mr Potter told a mining conference in Melbourne on Tuesday.

China will not be making any major policy adjustments due to a change in one economic indicator, Finance Minister Lou Jiwei said on Sunday.

The Chinese government is attempting some monetary stimulus; last week it cut the rate for short-term borrowing costs for banks by 20 basis points to 3.5 per cent.

Fortescue expected tough conditions

Fortescue Metals Group chief executive Nev Power said his company was continuing to reduce its cost structure and would exit 2014 as an even cheaper producer of iron ore than now.

When asked if low iron ore prices would force Fortescue to slow the pace of its debt repayments, Mr Power said the company had always expected to encounter tough conditions like this.

"We made those [debt repayment] forecasts on the basis of an iron ore price at around about $US90 per tonne," he said.

Fortescue has vowed to pay down another $US2 billion or $US2.5 billion over the next 18 months to two years, and Mr Power said on Tuesday that this financial year should see repayments of between $US1 billion to $US1.5 billion.

"We've paid $US500 million off, we expect another $US500 to a $US1 billion during this financial year, again it depends where the iron ore price goes but I think we are on track to do that," he said.

Fortescue considered selling a stake in its rail and port assets and did sell a power station during the iron ore price slump of 2012, but Mr Power indicated he was not likely to repeat those tactics any time soon.

"We review that constantly, we are always looking at those opportunities but they need to make sense for us and be on the right terms.

"We don't see any major asset sales on the agenda at this stage, certainly not (rail and port)," he said.

Mr Power said he did not expect to undertake any major round of job cuts, but noted that head-counts within mining companies were constantly changing depending on which areas were being mined.

"We have the ability to respond by reducing capex and continuing to reduce our costs and as you know our production is running ahead of where we were," he said.

Fortescue has moved down the global cost curve in recent years on the back of its new low cost Solomon development, which has taken its export capacity from 55 million tonnes per year to 155 million tonnes.

"Today we sit at number three on the global cost curve on a delivered cost to China," he said.

Mr Power also said Fortescue was delivering iron ore to China at below $US50 per tonne, but that comment, and the one about being the world's third cheapest producer, are likely to exclude corporate costs like interest.

Most analysts believe Fortescue has a break-even level closer to $US71 per tonne, once those corporate costs are taken into account.

Vale at disadvantage

Vale has traditionally sold iron ore to China at a disadvantage because it is further away from China compared to its Australian rivals.

But the Brazillian giant has recently struck a deal with a Chinese shipping company to allow extra large ships to carry its iron ore into Chinese ports under a plan that should cut unit costs through economies of scale and the use of modern, cleaner, more efficient technology.

Mr Potter said the new ships, known as Valemax, would cut Vale's production costs and were 35 per cent less carbon intensive than the cape-sized vessels traditionally used in the bulk commodity industry

"Our new generation of large ships are very important, it is probably our biggest opportunity to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in our value chain," he said.

"We do it for money as well, they are much more competitive. Brazil faces a desperate disadvantage compared to Australia being on the other side of the world from China."

Mr Potter said Vale was hoping to further improve the fleet by changing the fuel mix.

"We hope to take it further, we are hoping to convert our vessels to LNG," he said.

China growth

Andrew Michelmore is the Australian boss of Chinese miner MMG, and said the Middle Kingdom was focused on cleaning up several aspects of its growth before resuming its focus on progression.

"There's a big clean out of stuff going on at the moment. At the political level Xi Jinping is cleaning up the corruption side of it and that means people are hesitant about making decisions," he said.

"He is also driving down the bubble on private housing which everyone knows about.

"This is taking longer than he thought it would and it creates uncertainty and therefore the projections of growth are lower but it will actually come out with a more solid base to then grow."

Mr Michelmore said the Australian dollar was over-valued and a lot of foreign money would exit if it fell significantly.

Mr Michelmore said China would resume consumption of commodities over time and provide a strong market for copper and other minerals.

The copper price in particular should rebound in the second half of 2015.

作者: kikichou 时间: 23-9-2014 19:42

8080 发表于 18-9-2014 15:23
Unit 空置率高，平均租金下降，从两年前就是公开的秘密了。
house的平均租金下降，空置率上升，也是不争的 ...

我刚从珀斯来了悉尼
我倒觉得perth生活质量更高一点

作者: 8080 时间: 23-9-2014 22:31
我就是缺乏说飘亮好听的话的水平

作者: madrista 时间: 23-9-2014 22:42
据说BHP今天又cut掉700个员工，在QLD

作者: 8080 时间: 25-9-2014 12:43
From: http://www.acnw.com.au/australia ... se-prices-will-fall

澳洲储备银行再次发出了强烈的警告：目前不断上涨的房价不会永远持续下去，房价也可能会下跌。

这家央行在周三公布的双年度《金融稳定性复审》报告特别指出，澳洲具有风险性的经济环境受到了创纪录低利率环境、借贷方激烈的价格竞争和投资者借贷的稳步攀升等因素的推波助澜。

储行警告称，房市和房贷市场的比例可能会“变得失衡”，并指出投资者借贷比例已经超过了出租房市场房源的数量。

“这种旺盛的投资者活动的主要风险似乎是额外的需求可能会加剧房价周期，并增加房价猛跌的风险。”复审报告写道。“住房和房贷市场的结构已逐渐失衡。这在住房市场尤为明显，主要集中于悉尼和墨尔本。”

新州投资房贷批准率比两年前的水平高了90%，同期内维州的增幅则只有50%。

澳洲储行行长史蒂文斯（Glenn Stevens）上个月指出，央行在降低利率方面已经无能为力了。

在这份复审报告中，储行也强调了首置业者可能会被投资者挤出房市，因为后者的收入更高，在竞拍房产时的口袋也更深。

不过，储行指出，澳洲房产投资者与自住房业主一样，在还贷方面都值得信任，而且借贷标准也比全球金融危机之前更严厉。饶是如此，储行仍表示将设法“提升借贷机构的风险管理措施”，包括与澳洲审慎管理局和金融监管机构委员会（Council of Financial Regulators）成员讨论可采用的方法，以“巩固有效的借贷措施，尤其是针对投资者的信贷”。

作者: 8080 时间: 25-9-2014 12:47

madrista 发表于 23-9-2014 21:42
据说BHP今天又cut掉700个员工，在QLD

From: http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/article ... 0140900742994.shtml

报道称必和必拓拟裁昆州部员工700名
【大中小】【打印】
文章来源：驻悉尼总领馆经商室　　2014-09-25 09:21　　文章类型：摘编　内容分类：新闻据《澳大利亚人报》9月24日报道，必和必拓（BHP Billiton）煤炭部门总裁巴列（Dean Dalla Valle）警告称，未来这个挣扎中的产业会出现更多变化。与此同时，该公司计划辞退昆士兰州运营处的700名员工。

必和必拓三菱联合公司（BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance）周二（9月23日）宣布已告知员工，此次在昆州中部多个矿场开展的裁员行动将能削减成本，并使公司在长期内存活下去。

报道称，该公司在鲍文盆地（Bowen Basin）运营着7个矿场。巴列指出，此次裁员是个艰难的决定，但充满挑战的市场环境还会继续下去。他说：“我们将继续改善公司，以确保在全球的竞争力。公司会做该做的事，并继续尽最大努力咨询意见。这是一个痛苦的过渡时期，毫无疑问，未来一年至一年半时间内，我们会目睹行业发生更多变化，包括澳大利亚及其它地区。”

报道指出，过去一年里澳大利亚煤炭产业已有约1万人下岗，扩张项目纷纷遭到搁置。巴列指出，这个行业正在走出高成本的环境。他说：“可以这么说，我们的价格由世界决定，成本则由自己把握。我们得明确每个矿场的瓶颈是什么，从而了解限制因素在哪，并与全球基准作对比。”巴列表示，其部门已努力削减过成本，但相关工作还得继续进行。他说：“我们看到了一些亮点，但总体来说还不够，还得继续努力。”

作者: 8080 时间: 25-9-2014 13:11
https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewes ... or-iron-ore-miners/

Dark day for iron ore miners

Low iron ore prices have begun to bite at WA's mine sites, with Atlas Iron and Cliffs Natural Resources both understood to have stood down workers this week as part of cost-saving drives.

The retrenchments came on a dark day for resources, with Australia's chief commodity forecaster declaring the days of triple-figure iron ore prices were over and the Chinese owners of the $3 billion Extension Hill magnetite project putting the play on ice.

Atlas would not comment on redundancies made at its Pilbara operations this week but sources close to the company confirmed about 75 workers, including contractors, were retrenched.

Unconfirmed reports indicate mining contractor BGC has in recent weeks also shed part of its 950-strong workforce at Cliffs' Koolyanobbing operation.

Cliffs' US head office was contacted. BGC Contracting chief executive Greg Heylen is understood to be travelling and was not available for comment.

The Mid West's iron industry also took a blow yesterday when Asia Iron shelved Extension Hill because of an "elevated level of caution" in China over financing overseas investments, particularly iron ore projects.

The company said its backers, led by majority owner Chongqing Iron and Steel, remained committed to the project in the long term.

Yesterday's news came as the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics used its quarterly update to cut forecast prices.

Only three months ago the bureau was forecasting iron ore to average $US105.20 a tonne through 2014 before edging down to $US96.50/t in 2015.

The bureau yesterday said iron ore would average $US93.60/t this year before rising slightly to $US94.30/t next year.

Over the next five years it expects iron ore to average between $US90/t and $US95/t.

This year's forecast spot price is well short of the current price, which edged down overnight to a fresh five-year low of $US79.40/t.

BREE analysts noted that there was little chance of a bounce back in prices.

"In Australia alone over 200 million tonnes of new capacity has started production in the past 12 months," BREE stated.

"The increased availability of supply has altered the market dynamic and as the risk of having to pay higher prices . . . has not abated, Chinese buyers do not appear to be stocking up on iron ore as they previously did. Prices are expected to rebound from the current low levels but remain well below the high prices seen in previous years due to the supply overhang that is prevailing."

'Iron ore prices (will) remain well below the high prices seen in previous years due to the supply overhang.'" Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics

作者: 8080 时间: 25-9-2014 14:15
本帖最后由 8080 于 25-9-2014 13:26 编辑

其实,我认为上面对铁矿石价格的预计可能是错误的.

个人更倾向于高盛的预计:既未来的12到24个月绝大的可能是铁矿石平均价格会低于80美金每吨的. (当然,他们的策略可能是温水煮青蛙,以免太烫造成恐慌,给青蛙跳走了)

刚刚新闻里好象说:2013/2014澳大利亚政府的财政最终赤字是485亿澳币. 大家提前做好多做贡献,小享受或不享受福利的准备.

西澳的驾驶员得注意了:违章罚款大幅提高,比如打手机400刀.

作者: zookey 时间: 27-9-2014 14:41
上面说的矿石品质对已有炉子的要求我上网看了一下确实是有的，不过好像没说高了怎么样，主要说如果品味低了不行

作者: 8080 时间: 5-10-2014 04:34
继上回淡水河谷同中远签订十多条装货量40多万吨的25年租船合同，上周淡水河谷又同香港招商局签订了十条租期25年的40多万吨的租船合同。
估计这个冬天不会短。
网上说九十年代铁矿石连跌六年到1998年。从大约35美金跌倒大钓23美金一吨。

作者: circleyue 时间: 5-10-2014 19:38
本帖最后由 circleyue 于 6-10-2014 11:19 编辑

8080 发表于 25-9-2014 14:15
其实,我认为上面对铁矿石价格的预计可能是错误的.

个人更倾向于高盛的预计:既未来的12到24个月绝大的可 ...

BHP和RIO要把小矿全砸死，叫国内的矿厂全关门，所以矿石价格可能会继续跌。这样加大他们的市场份额/控制力。
资本家都杀人不吐骨头

作者: 西澳海豚 时间: 6-10-2014 10:12

circleyue 发表于 5-10-2014 16:38
BHP和RIO要把小矿全砸死，叫国内的钢厂全关门，所以矿石价格可能会继续跌。这样加大他们的市场份额/控制 ...

你的见解太正确了，根据相关内幕人士消息-----

此时正是（收拾）一些小公司的好时机，虽然获利下降，但是战略利益来说却是有所收获。

到最后来是四大公司垄断局面！

作者: ashanadsl 时间: 6-10-2014 11:06
提示: 作者被禁止或删除, 无法发言

作者: 8080 时间: 6-10-2014 17:36
本帖最后由 8080 于 6-10-2014 17:41 编辑

From: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014- ... n-ore-costs/5792388

BHP Billiton to cut costs of Australian iron ore operations
By resources reporter Sue Lannin
Updated 6 Oct 2014, 2:29pmMon 6 Oct 2014, 2:29pm

Photo: BHP will cut costs associated with its Australian iron ore operations. (AAP: BHP Billiton) Related Story: Hundreds of Qld mining jobs to be axedRelated Story: BHP Billiton cuts iron ore jobs in Port HedlandRelated Story: Australia undermining global iron ore pricesMap: WA
BHP Billiton has raised the stakes in the ongoing war of attrition in global iron ore with a plan to slash costs and lift production.

The world's biggest miner is going head to head with arch rival Rio Tinto for global domination that in recent months has seen prices plummet, threatening to send smaller, higher cost suppliers to the wall.

BHP Billiton Iron Ore president Jimmy Wilson this morning announced the company planned to add a further 65 million tonnes of annual production to an already flooded market, with ambitions to become the lowest cost producer.

"Our confidence [in] this approach will enable us to drive unit costs, including freight and royalties, below $US20 a tonne in the medium term," he told an analyst briefing this morning.

"And our aim is to become the lowest all-in cash cost supplier of iron ore to China."

Rio Tinto holds the dominant position in the industry. It is the biggest and cheapest iron ore supplier.

Now producing about 290 million tonnes per annum, Rio is expanding its output to a projected 360 million tonnes.

But BHP is on its heels.

"Our plans are to grow our supply chain capacity by 65 million tonnes to 290 million tonnes per annum at an exceptionally competitive capital cost of approximately $US30 per annual tonne," Mr Wilson said.

Fortescue, the third biggest Australian producer, is also ramping up production, aiming to lift its output to 170 million tonnes from current levels of 155 million tonnes.

Gina Rinehart's new Hope Downs mine will add further supplies into an already oversupplied market. It should be producing 55 million tonnes by late next year.

During the past year, iron ore prices have crashed.

After hovering above $US135 late last year, a massive ramp up in production and cooling demand from China has seen prices for the Pilbara's red earth sink to five-year lows below $US78 a tonne.

That has put smaller rivals such as Atlas Iron, Gindalbie, Mount Gibson, Arrium and BC Iron under enormous financial pressure as prices drop below break-even costs.

Slashing costs 'just business': Bell Potter investment adviser
Even Fortescue has been feeling the pinch given its break-even costs are estimated to be around $US72 a tonne.

Investment adviser Giuliano Sala Tenna, from Bell Potter Securities, says it is not a price war for BHP Billiton, just business.

"BHP still produces very low down the cost curve so they are by far and away one of the cheapest producers in the world," Mr Sala Tenna said.

"So when you look at their costs of production they are still highly profitable even with the big decrease in iron ore pricing.

"So while many producers may be struggling at this stage of the cycle, for BHP it's still one of the most profitable assets in their portfolio."

Mr Sala Tenna says smaller, high cost Australian producers are losing money as well as other producers elsewhere in India, South East Asia and China as the price of iron ore falls.

While Fortescue Metals is also being squeezed, Mr Sala Tenna believes it has more room to move because it has undertaken a major cost reduction program.

Bevan Sturgess Smith from Macquarie Private Wealth says BHP Billiton is being bullish despite signs of a slowing Chinese economy.

"What they are trying to do is maintain that very dominant position," Mr Sturgess Smith said.

"The fact that their margins are so good that they can continue to increase their production ... it just means even if the demand or the price drops a little bit further they are still making money."

作者: 8080 时间: 6-10-2014 17:47
From: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014- ... re-iron-ore/5792898

BHP and Rio Tinto both to ramp up iron ore production amid major slump in price

Despite the price of iron ore hitting five-year lows, the country's two largest miners both plan to mine and ship more.

BHP Billiton has announced it will boost production by an additional 65 million tonnes over the next three years.

At the same time, it says it will cut costs by 25 per cent.

Rival miner Rio Tinto announced plans last week to ship a further 40,000 tonnes a year by 2015.

Audio file not found
Audio: Hear analyst Mark Pervan's thoughts on BHP cuts (ABC Rural)
Unlike newer and smaller iron ore miners like Atlas Iron and BC Iron, which are both struggling with high production costs, the big two are able to benefit from decades of mining and infrastructure they already have in place in Western Australia's Pilbara region.

BHP Billiton president of iron ore, Jimmy Wilson, says cost-cutting will make the company the lowest-cost producer of iron ore in Australia.

It is expected to be able to reduce its cash cost to less than $US20 a tonne in the medium term.

"That's a reduction of more than 25 per cent on the average achieved in the 2014 financial year," Mr Wilson said.

Rio Tinto boss Sam Walsh has previously stated that Rio's costs of production were less than $US20.

That means both companies still receive a substantial premium at today's price of around $US79.

ANZ's head of commodities research, Mark Pervan, says BHP's announcement was expected by the market.

"I think what is a little surprising is that these large producers have enjoyed very strong margins and controlled, to some degree, the total supply of iron ore in the seaborne market," he said.
"They're kind of saying now, we're happy to relinquish some of the control over supply.

"I think that's the change in dynamic which we didn't see in the last decade... now there's more of a race on to maintain market share and forgo some profit margins."

Companies say steel demand to rise further still
A large part of the reason the price of iron ore has dropped more than 40 per cent since the start of the year has been the rapid expansion by Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton in Australia and Vale in Brazil.

But plans to expand output even further shows the confidence all three companies have in the need for iron ore for steel into the future.

BHP's Jimmy Wilson says despite there being significant stockpiles of iron ore in China, it's not the only market in the world.

"We continue to see healthy demand growth from China as it increases steel production by up to 25 per cent in the early to mid 2020s.

"Meanwhile, steel production growth in other countries in other emerging economies is outpacing China as those nations urbanise and industrialise.

"So we expect to see a compound annual growth rate for global steel production of between 2.5 and 3 per cent between now and 2030."

Coal moving ahead in Queensland despite low price also
Meanwhile, Chinese company China Stone is looking for environmental approval for a $6 billion thermal coal mine in Queensland.

Thermal coal, used in power stations, is at a low of around $US65 a tonne.

China Stone is planned for the Bowen Basin and the project is by Chinese company Meijin, under the auspices of local subsidiary Macmines Austasia.

China Stone has officially launched action to obtain Federal Government environmental approval despite large numbers of job losses in Australian coal mines recently.

作者: civil3d 时间: 8-10-2014 14:28
现在这个板感觉冷清了很多。不知道在澳洲的大家如何

作者: 8080 时间: 9-10-2014 17:49
FROM: https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewes ... s-in-savings-drive/

Govt slashes 1500 jobs in savings drive

The State Government will seek 1500 voluntary redundancies as it looks to deal with mounting debt and the day-to-day costs of running Government.

Premier Colin Barnett said there was no option but to make "harsh and fundamental" spending cuts.

He said he expected a high take-up of redundancies.

Mr Barnett said the measures were in response to deteriorating budget conditions and reflected the State Government's determination to make savings across government.

"The combined effect of a fall in the iron ore price and cuts in the GST to WA means that while the broader WA economy is generally strong, state government revenue is bearing the burden," he said.

"It is important that the Government respond to these financial constraints by cutting spending in the public sector."

Treasurer Mike Nahan said the fall in the iron ore price - down 35 per cent from Treasury's 2014/15 budget assumption - had wiped about $2 billion off the State's expected revenue for the period.

The State Government said a revenue deterioration of that magnitude in less than six months was unprecedented and would significantly reduce its capacity to deliver a budget surplus this financial year.

The savings measures will include a 15 per cent cut in non-essential spending from 2015-2016, a 15 per cent cut for "non-essential" road maintenance for three years and a further 5 per cent cut across the board to the capital works budget.

There will also be an additional one per cent efficiency dividend across all government except schools.

Treasurer Mike Nahan announced interim dividends for Synergy, Western Power and Horizon.

This will bring $159 million of revenue forward to this year.

Mr Nahan estimated the measures will save $2 billion over the forward estimates.

Mr Barnett said he was "frustrated, bordering on angry" about today's announcements.

"We've been able to carry the loss of GST with strong mining royalties. That now has gone," Mr Barnett said.

"The double hit of falling iron ore prices and falling GST revenues means that now we have to make some very harsh and fundamental changes to the State Government Budget.

"We have no option but to decrease spending across the board."

Neither the Premier of the Treasurer could guarantee the Government will deliver a surplus in 2014-2015.

Earlier this week Mr Barnett told thewest.com.au that WA's State finances were in for a volatile ride.

"You can't guarantee something like that but my objective is to always run a surplus," he said.

"With the fall in iron ore price and further cuts to GST, that will be very difficult to achieve this year.

"The rapid fall in iron ore prices has punched a hole in our Budget."

with AAP

作者: 8080 时间: 9-10-2014 17:56
FROM: https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewes ... or-cancer-patients/

Shock slug for cancer patients

Patients face being hit with up-front bills of up to $2200 for cancer tests under little-known changes linked to the Abbott Government's plan for Medicare co-payments.

Details of the shock slug emerged at a Senate inquiry yesterday looking at the unpopular patient co-payment announced in the May Budget.

While the Government stresses $7 is a modest amount for patients to pay to see a doctor or have a scan or blood test, the Australian Diagnostic Imaging Association warns the financial burden will be much bigger for patients using expensive services such as X-rays and MRIs.

According to the ADIA, radiologists who continue to bulk bill and not collect the $7 would have the Medicare rebate cut from 95 per cent to 85 per cent, forcing them to charge patients a higher out-of-pocket gap.

A safety net for high cost diagnostic tests such as nuclear medicine and MRIs would also be abolished.

And all patients would have to pay up-front fees because Medicare's payment systems did not allow practices to claim the rebate directly from the Government and charge patients just the gap.

The ADIA estimated patients would pay up to $92 up-front for X-Rays, $160 for mammograms, $189 for ultrasounds, $383 for CT scans, $464 for nuclear medicine and $500 for MRIs. A patient having a PET scan for a malignant melanoma could pay $945 up-front.

However, with many cancers and other conditions requiring multiple scans and tests to diagnose, costs would escalate.

"We believe the cuts do go too hard," ADIA chief executive Pattie Beerens told senators.

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten said this "hidden trap" would make health care unaffordable for many people.

However, a spokesman for Health Minister Peter Dutton said the only out-of-pocket expense for a patient when they were charged a co-payment would be the $7.

Practices that charged the co-payment would receive the Medicare rebate directly as currently occurs with bulk-billed services.

"It is anticipated that this will be the approach taken by most diagnostic imaging providers for most patients," the spokesman said.

"Diagnostic imaging providers will continue to determine the fees they charge."

作者: reyesv 时间: 19-10-2014 02:40

西澳瓶鼻海豚发表于 6-10-2014 10:12
你的见解太正确了，根据相关内幕人士消息-----

此时正是（收拾）一些小公司的好时机，虽然获利下降， ...

资产不够打不了价格战,利润空间薄弱的话死的最早的往往不是大公司...

好吧过于武断了,对于大公司来说,东方不亮西方亮,没有铁矿还有铝矿

小公司还有个啥- -

作者: lowprofile 时间: 19-10-2014 02:56
感觉属于一种通货紧缩的状况。

作者: heluxuedd 时间: 19-10-2014 09:32
这个还不错大家谈谈

作者: symeteor 时间: 19-10-2014 10:06

Tecmia 发表于 23-8-2014 20:42
悉尼的房价还在涨，在这样的背景下，买房是升值的（不管是什么房子）；
坛子里曾经有人说过：悉尼是国际土 ...

3年从80万升到100W。。。这个其实是不赚钱的
假设贷款是80*0.8=64万，按照澳洲平均利率7，3年利息是64*0.07*3=13.44万
买房80w的印花税一般在3W左右吧，卖房中介费2个点，这就又5W出去了
13.44+5=18.44万，这3年你又支出了什么council 费，各种房子保养维修费。。。
你觉得是赚了还是赔了？

很多人盲目的只看房子价值升了，就觉得赚钱了。。实际上仔细算算是另外一回事
如果单纯从收益上讲，如果没有房价的飞涨（至少10%每年的涨幅），长期持有房子是远远不如长期租房的。。。

作者: sunny2006 时间: 20-10-2014 19:24

symeteor 发表于 19-10-2014 10:06
3年从80万升到100W。。。这个其实是不赚钱的
假设贷款是80*0.8=64万，按照澳洲平均利率7，3年利息是64*0 ...

你住这个房子的租金不算上？

作者: lowprofile 时间: 21-10-2014 00:45

sunny2006 发表于 20-10-2014 16:24
你住这个房子的租金不算上？

自住房和投资房是两码事，自住房是消费品，区别是有人偏好经济耐用，有人偏好高附加值/奢侈品，只是在于能否负担得起房租。
投资房一年上涨少于10%基本就是赔钱了：
1.谁都不会全款买个投资房用于投资的，不是用于投资的情况另说。。。
2.负债的话一般都是努力靠全贷款，相应的需要支出贷款利息，靠房租进行反哺，高利率的时候，价格越贵的房子租金和利息差距越大，利率降到5%左右才刚好能持平，利息上涨的时候，房贷利息很快超过租金收入，大部分时候这个数值维持在2%-3%。
3.每年的维护成本基本上相当于房价的2%。
也就是说就算房价每年涨10%，直接被当年的维护成本和倒贴房贷利息消耗掉一半，剩下的一半也就是个存款利息而已。

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