浅谈澳洲房市

sdcmc · 发表于 23-2-2011 02:30:31

原帖由 samchen 于 22-2-2011 14:45 发表

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比起现在香港和中国内地的房子，澳洲的房子是在是太抵了。

HK的房子，全球最贵，有可比性么

比全球0.000001% 的房子抵,就是很抵嘛.

samchen · 发表于 23-2-2011 02:40:49

原帖由 sdcmc 于 23-2-2011 02:30 发表

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HK的房子，全球最贵，有可比性么比全球0.000001% 的房子抵,就是很抵嘛.

抵不抵本来就是个人的感觉而已。这个买不买还是看自己的想法和实际情况决定。谁也不知道未来如何。JUST FOLLOW YOUR HEART.

flyspirit · 发表于 23-2-2011 09:50:25

原帖由 1972240 于 22-2-2011 22:39 发表

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I do not want to argue with anyone about technical question, let's just use common sense to judge the price. If most of the people feel it is too high and can't afford it, then it must have a bubble.

I think otherwise. If most feel it's too high and will decline. It will goes up continuously. On the other hand, if most people think they can make money from the market, the price will collapse.

The average annual income is just 50K, and we have to pay for household,education,etc. When the wolf is really coming, the government wont be stupid to stimulate the house market again..

Mind you, if average income is just 50k, average house hold income is 100k since more women join work force. As I know, average income is more than 60k

妮南 · 发表于 23-2-2011 13:03:13

传说有的来澳洲竞价买房的中国人，这么在喊：“嗨，墨尔本的房价比上海便宜。”

未来的五年、十年，相信澳洲的房价不会大起大落，而上海北京的房价还将每年翻一番？

传说有不少中国投资者在黄金海岸买房，但这次的洪灾将使他们投资损失惨重

flyspirit · 发表于 23-2-2011 14:12:21

别想当然好不，洪灾对黄金海岸一点影响也没有。

妮南 · 发表于 23-2-2011 14:16:53

洪灾对昆洲房市一点影响都没有？

flyspirit · 发表于 23-2-2011 14:50:06

昆州房市和黄金海岸的房市不能划等号，黄金海岸并没有受到洪水影响。从QLD受灾推出黄金海岸房价会大跌这个逻辑，不能让人信服。

toaussie_share · 发表于 23-2-2011 15:05:54

原帖由 Rondy 于 23-2-2011 13:03 发表

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传说有的来澳洲竞价买房的中国人，这么在喊：“嗨，墨尔本的房价比上海便宜。”

未来的五年、十年，相信澳洲的房价不会大起大落，而上海北京的房价还将每年翻一番？

传说有不少中国投资者在黄金海岸买房，但这 ...

黄金海岸的房子之所以不适合投资，是因为这是旅游城市，流动人口多，出租不稳定，升值不咋的，但是如果有钱的话这里倒是很适合生活，只是个人观点

妮南 · 发表于 23-2-2011 15:41:27

原帖由 flyspirit 于 23-2-2011 13:20 发表

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昆州房市和黄金海岸的房市不能划等号，黄金海岸并没有受到洪水影响。从QLD受灾推出黄金海岸房价会大跌这个逻辑，不能让人信服。

即使是遭受了洪水，本人也没有认为昆洲的房价会大跌。只是眼前不同程度的受到点影响。

妮南 · 发表于 23-2-2011 15:47:34

原帖由 toaussie_share 于 23-2-2011 13:35 发表

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黄金海岸的房子之所以不适合投资，是因为这是旅游城市，流动人口多，出租不稳定，升值不咋的，但是如果有钱的话这里倒是很适合生活，只是个人观点

曾经听到国内一位朋友说起，她的生意partner，一意大利人在5年前到黄金海岸买房投资，据说没有赚钱。有点不相信。

而这五年，你随便在国内哪个城市买一套房子投资或自住多多少少都会升值的。

flyspirit · 发表于 23-2-2011 16:20:39

原帖由 toaussie_share 于 23-2-2011 15:05 发表

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黄金海岸的房子之所以不适合投资，是因为这是旅游城市，流动人口多，出租不稳定，升值不咋的，但是如果有钱的话这里倒是很适合生活，只是个人观点

不适合投资但适合投机

1972240 · 发表于 23-2-2011 17:54:29

原帖由 flyspirit 于 23-2-2011 09:50 发表

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I think otherwise. If most feel it's too high and will decline. It will goes up continuously. On the other hand, if most people think they can make money from the market, the price will collapse.
...

You remind me what my mother told me about the stock market in China 2 years ago. When it rose to 6000, most feel it is too high, my mother told me "it will goes up continuously until 10000".

Do you think there is big difference between the 50k to 60k of the anual income?
If you have enough cash and just buy a house for living, go for it.
If you are investor, be careful. The real estate market is a capital market, not for us common citizen to play (unless you have enough cash to purchase more than 5 properties). The reasons for the rising of oz market are as follows:
1) Capitals from asia, (I know some shanghaiese purchased 6 properties in perth when the oz dollars was very low.)
2) Very low interest rate.
3) Government stimulate package.

These factors encouraged the demand, but do you think these factors are still there today ? I do not think so.

I agree with someone that only God knows what will happen. I just show some facts and the possibility is very high.

1972240 · 发表于 23-2-2011 18:19:30

Just some interesting thing to share
In Shanghai stock market, in 2007 it rose to 4000 points, the government started to cool down the market, while the more the government pushes,the higher the market point. So people did not believe the market would collapse. Until it really collapsed when reaching 6000. The reason is capital from overseas withdrawed suddently.

Now the similar thing happened in real estate market in China, the more the government pushes, the higher the apartment price. So nobody believes price will go down in China (even my mother forgot the lesson from stock market

While something remarkable happened in China in this year: The interest rate rose twice in 2 months, and a lot of serious regulation restrects the investment in real estate market. This would trigger the withdraw of capital from house market, and capital goes into stock market instead, that is why the stock price went up recently.
Possibility is : The real estate market is gonna cool down ( if not collapse), just a matter of time. Why we care so much on China's real estate market?
Australia's economy now is reply on mining, in mining there are 2 kinds of products contributing most to oz' profit. Iron one and coaking coal. Both of them are for making steel and then building apartments in China.

life2010 · 发表于 23-2-2011 18:32:24

原帖由 1972240 于 23-2-2011 18:19 发表

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Just some interesting thing to share
In Shanghai stock market, in 2007 it rose to 4000 points, the government started to cool down the market, while the more the government pushes,the higher the mar ...

I agree with u for some points. But where do u live. Nsw？

1972240 · 发表于 23-2-2011 18:51:08

原帖由 life2010 于 23-2-2011 18:32 发表

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I agree with u for some points. But where do u live. Nsw？

Hi Bro, I lived in NSW in 2006; In WA in 2009. Now in QLD.

金鱼和农夫 · 发表于 23-2-2011 18:55:45

争了半天，大家似乎忘了一件事，当你们讨论房价涨还是跌时，你们预期的是北京上海这种走法吗？在澳洲房产投资不是从有中国移民开始的，房价的上升速度也没有大起大落，传统投资的方式是通过合理出租用最小的持续投资达到最终占有的目的，像国内那种捞一票就走的方法，除非你付出时间精力去做renovation，想用短投赚到跟国内一样是不可能的，当然暴跌也是不可能的，只要租房市场稳定，房租跟通胀上去，不用几年一部分投资房就可以自给自足，你付出时间获得收益也是合理的，关键是要做好损失的准备，买好足够的保险，这也是投资的一部分，至于房价上去了那是bonus,暂时不上去的话，只要控制好现金流也不至于亏本，这本来是一个不求有功但求无过的投资，与国内的投机不同。如果你说房租也可能跌，那么在人口持续增长房子供应不足的情况下，只可能出现短期的下跌，如果由于通胀下跌而房租长期走低，那么贷款利息势必也要下来。

讨论这些事情如果不把投资和自住房，长投和短投分开，你们大多数都在鸡同鸭讲不是？

1972240 · 发表于 23-2-2011 19:14:46

原帖由 金鱼和农夫 于 23-2-2011 18:55 发表

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争了半天，大家似乎忘了一件事，当你们讨论房价涨还是跌时，你们预期的是北京上海这种走法吗？在澳洲房产投资不是从有中国移民开始的，房价的上升速度也没有大起大落，传统投资的方式是通过合理出租用最小的持续投资 ...

I wish you are right.
While I think in recent 8 years, it has been 大起, and same 大起 in US and Europe ( etc.Ireland).

The point is the collase in China's real estate will affect oz's economy, if the economy is hit, what will happen in houseing market in oz ?

The globalization is a curse, it spreads the flu(economy collapse) from US to Europe and Mid East, next wave might be China and OZ.
China has increas the interest rate to prevent further inflation, that will dramatically affect the realestate market and basic construction industry (building bridges, subways, railways). In china, everything is either too hot or too cold, always extreamly change.
Let's just wish China will get hit later and later...

oceania · 发表于 23-2-2011 23:03:12

原帖由 金鱼和农夫 于 23-2-2011 18:55 发表

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争了半天，大家似乎忘了一件事，当你们讨论房价涨还是跌时，你们预期的是北京上海这种走法吗？在澳洲房产投资不是从有中国移民开始的，房价的上升速度也没有大起大落，传统投资的方式是通过合理出租用最小的持续投资 ...

这个例子不好，你不能拿中国比。
因为中国一直在高速增长，这个增长是有限度的，快差不多了，没什么后劲的了
世界就这么大的市场，中国的制造力再强，市场是有限的

oceania · 发表于 23-2-2011 23:25:07

我们其实是在谈论一个投资的市场，而不是一个刚性需求的问题
房地产涨还是跌跟经济的好坏密切相关，如日本，美国，中国，澳洲
基本面不好，不跌就不错了，别谈什么投资了。

flyspirit · 发表于 24-2-2011 00:36:47

原帖由 1972240 于 23-2-2011 17:54 发表

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1) Capitals from asia, (I know some shanghaiese purchased 6 properties in perth when the oz dollars was very low.)
2) Very low interest rate.
3) Government stimulate package.

Well said, mate. You get some good arguments here. However, I will say these factors are easy to be changed.

It's easy for RBA to decrease interest rate. If they start to decrease, Aussie dollar will fall. Lots of money are waiting offshore for that day.
Another stimulus package, first home buyer grant to be specific, is unlikely because gov doesn't have money now, but if they accumulate some money after a couple of years. Another increase is possible if needed. If no, they still can throw out other policy like stamp duty benefit or something similar. No government hope a dramatic decline in property price, because it is firmly tied to banking system.

Let's dig it deeper. Some other factors are not easy to be changed, or direct impacted. Like economic condition, unemployment rate, population growth. Among these, economic condition is largely influenced by China's economy, so as unemployement rate. So let's concentrate on China's economy.

Inflation is not a problem. 10% looks high but not a nightmare if you compare it with India or other countries with high GDP growth. It's common if you have such high GDP growth rate. The Chinese gov already took firm steps to tackle this problem and it will be it's top task for the whole 2011. It can be fixed sooner or later.

A more difficult problem is the restructure of the whole economy. GDP growth is good but it's not that good if gov spending contributes to much. So how to increase domestic consuming is a hard subject. It need to increase salary, restore trust, ensure social security and many more. However, to my opinion, the gov can still deal with that.

A even more difficult issue is the aging population after 10 to 20 years. From the end of 70s of last century, one child policy is imposed to whole society. Their parents will be retired by then. The can be more retired people than work force. That's the real issue and is one of the fundamental cause of Japan's decades recession.

So if China economy will stop, not within several years but 10 years or more. Will Australia economy still rely on it? Hopefully not.

samchen · 发表于 24-2-2011 01:26:42

不错，几位给的论点都很有意思。喜欢这样的讨论。从不同的角度和不同的经历来看问题。

金鱼和农夫 · 发表于 24-2-2011 12:19:59

这个话倒要拿数字讲，我离家刚好8年多。当年我上海的家价值40万左右，现在超过200万吧？当年我在悉尼租的第一套房子价值20多万，我觉得够贵了，现在的行情是37万，一年百分之七八的幅度，去掉通胀，这个算大涨？

另外说一句，全球化不是中国化，澳洲看中国脸色恐怕是我们良好的愿望，人家从前看得不多，经济危机里面也不用看太多，随着全球资源越来越窘迫，最终没资源的国家都要看有资源国家的脸色，手里有东西的最狠。我知道这里在讨论的市场跟中国经济有点关系，可是这个关系有多大，是要时间去证明的，主流社会的想法我们并不了解，像前些日子召回的那个政策，搁中国不就是引进外资嘛。

flyspirit · 发表于 24-2-2011 12:56:49

原帖由 1972240 于 23-2-2011 18:19 发表

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that is why the stock price went up recently

Are you sure, stock price decline 9% for last year and around 2800 - 2900 points now.

The reality is, the money from housing market push up price of gingers, beams, sugars. That's one of the reasons Chinese CPI increase quickly. These money are waiting for opportunities to enter Australia's housing market.

Cool down and collapse is very different concept, they should consider separately. A cool down market is a good opp to buy property, especially for PPOR. And savvy investors still make money from such market. And most important, confidence is still there. A collapsing market is totally different. Please don't mix these two.

With this in head, we can say both housing markets in China and Australia maybe cool down for a couple of years. It indeed give a opportunity to buy. And the price may go up again several years later.

flyspirit · 发表于 24-2-2011 13:01:28

原帖由 金鱼和农夫 于 23-2-2011 18:55 发表

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争了半天，大家似乎忘了一件事，当你们讨论房价涨还是跌时，你们预期的是北京上海这种走法吗？在澳洲房产投资不是从有中国移民开始的，房价的上升速度也没有大起大落，传统投资的方式是通过合理出租用最小的持续投资 ...

这其实就是我前面讲的即使房价不涨都可以赚钱，前提是不能崩盘。

我们中国人可能受国内的影响都考虑从房产增值中赚钱。但鬼佬除了这个之外还用你说的renovation，而且这么干的不少。可以去看看悉尼内西区的房子，如果能找到一个有renovation潜力的房子算你本事。早被人家抢走了。除了装修外老外的招数还有拆地，重建，变title等等，名堂多了去了。

金鱼和农夫 · 发表于 24-2-2011 14:32:09

呵呵，看过一本讲二十多人怎么变花样在房产里挣钱的书，很受启发，那些人里面从来没有人持房等差价的，算现金流的有之，装修的有之，拆了盖旅馆的有之，还有把房子变成生意出售的，买大地分割的，做新房package的，你说的那些几乎都涵盖了。

所以我其实不很关心这个话题的结论，最终我们是拿中国的眼光看待另一个完全不同的市场。就像你说的，只要不崩盘。如果再有人跑出来证明一定会崩盘的话，那我就相信富贵由天了，只要你还身在这个经济体内，一旦崩盘，不论你做了还是没做，区别都不是太大，可如果不崩盘，区别还是很大的。

flyspirit · 发表于 24-2-2011 16:04:15

是的，我的看法和你一样，只要不崩盘，就没有大问题。如果天天盼崩盘，就没啥好说了

求书名

[ 本帖最后由 flyspirit 于 24-2-2011 16:05 编辑 ]

金鱼和农夫 · 发表于 24-2-2011 18:43:59

那本书是几年前在社区图书馆借的，名字不记得了，因为它们总是很多本挤在一个架子上，你去看看如果有这本书应该能认出来，书名大概就是多少个人从地产里挣钱的故事，这类书通常说教的多，只有这本像看故事一样有趣，所以我还有印象。回头我去图书馆网站上搜索一下，找到就告诉你。

妮南 · 发表于 24-2-2011 18:48:11

那天看到国内有关房子的话题：我们现在把所有的钱都用在供房上，父母也把他们的钱花在我们的房子上，将来谁来养我们的父母？

——一个多么沉重的话题。按照父母的说法：没有我们的赞助，你们何年何月才能有房？

国内是这样的现状，澳洲的未来会不会也变成这样呢？

金鱼和农夫 · 发表于 24-2-2011 19:07:35

我想不会。至少本地没有国内所谓的刚性需求，本地人并不在乎一定要拥有一套房子，恰恰相反，长线房产投资很大程度依靠着一个稳定规模的租房市场。所以澳洲的房价只要卡住海外投资者的脖子就不会坐火箭上去。中国不同，人人咬牙切齿地买房子，政府假如能用廉租房保证人人有房住就是奇迹了，实在没可能满足一些人刚开始工作就要拥有房产的占有欲…在国内我可以理解父母的不得以为之，你的孩子长大以后即使你想，他们都不会要了，这种事我在89那批老移民家里看得很多。

samchen · 发表于 24-2-2011 19:30:20

澳洲政府其实不想房价疯涨，这个从他们设置限制来减少非永久居民买房就可以看出来。而且，一来通胀，澳洲这边是很规矩的加息，把通胀控制在合理的范围。现在是租金在涨，但房子价格在松动。对于在澳洲的中国人来说，拥有一套住房还是大部分人的想法。如果有可能，可以趁这个机会先拿自己的第一套住房。

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