房产投资问答专栏（悉尼）

Consultant

两位老大，暂请停止争论吧，其实争来争去，又有何意义呢？
算是给兄弟我个面子吧，谢了先~

spirit1

本来争不争的意义都不大,对于将来的事情,只有时间能证明一切.
关于我刚到细腻的生活轨迹,不用你来评论,每个人在生活中都有高潮和低谷.那段时光我是非常值得珍惜,所以也坦荡荡的写出来.如果不是因为在香港投资的失误,我也不可能去体会到另一种的生活,甚至为一点小钱而算计,让太太为我受苦.这也是为什么我让大家注意风险控制的原因.不过后面的上海房地产和国内的股票市场早已让我收复失地.再把这些写下来告诉大家又有什么意义呢.做投资只图一时口舌之快,而不顾市场规律,最后来一定会遍体鳞伤.我这不是危言耸听.你听进去也好.听不进去也好.我再不会回你的贴.
房产在3年左右开始下跌只是个大概概念,也许会早点,也许会晚点,但是该来的总要来. 到时候房产一旦跌下来,你连逃的机会都不会有.具体原因分析的人很多了,我只谈很重要的一点.目前政府不敢对房地产下狠手,主要的原因就是房地产绑架了银行,地产价格的大波动会引发国内金融体系的大震荡.如何化解这个风险,政府已经找到了办法,就是利用资本市场来买单,让流动性过剩的资金在关键时刻填补地产坏帐的黑洞.这个载体就是股票市场.为什么银行股现在纷纷上市,除了政府想增加国有资产的流动性,将死钱变活钱外,另一个重要原因就是规避风险,一旦银行都上市成功,国家也在不影响控股权的情况下,高价套现后,接下来国家对付房地产就不会投鼠忌器了.绝对是稳准狠.而洋买办也早就得到消息,让他们的外国主子滑脚走路.而最惨的是平民百姓,买得早的电梯来回做,买得晚的,正好为政府贴现了.而一轮的财富再分配就此完成.开始下个轮回.

fpeking

原帖由 spirit1 于 16-10-2007 23:11 发表

                               
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本来争不争的意义都不大,对于将来的事情,只有时间能证明一切.
关于我刚到细腻的生活轨迹,不用你来评论,每个人在生活中都有高潮和低谷.那段时光我是非常值得珍惜,所以也坦荡荡的写出来.如果不是因为在香港投资的 ...

坦率说，我在任何一个论坛上本就从来不针对任何人本身进行讨论。
恰恰相反的是，不是我对你进行什么评价，而是你一直妄自揣测他人无法让人对你的言行有所尊重。
在问题里还是同样，回不回，没有人在意，但是不用总是摆出一副高深莫测／资深人士的姿态。在论坛上，我对人的尊重，是基于人的言行的。言之有物言之有理，谁不会尊重。而总是提出喜欢拿出自己的经验来摆弄，恐怕不是什么好心态。
诚如所言，你恐怕也是借了上海这两年的房地产市场重新开始了一段新生活，而北京的房地产最近这两三年的火爆程度，我相信这一两年在北京的人有太深刻的感受，自从04年的831大限以后，房价的彪升带动了太多的投机机会。这正是我所言，如果用30／50年的眼光去比较北京和悉尼的投资，是完全不合理的。在国内的投资客投机客，恐怕也包括你本身，也都是在这些年的飞速翻倍中所攫取财富的。这一点恰恰是和这里不一样的地方。
至于说看涨看跌，看几年，我想现下的社会中间，充斥了太多所谓的“专家”“行业人士”“青年经济学家”的观点，没有人会轻易的做出自己的投资，在任何一个房地产市场上，所以比较和讨论才有更多的意义，这也正是我在抛出自己的看法还对Consultant很尊重的原因，因为他无偿在这里付出了太多的劳动。
如果一个人一方面最终承认近几年在上海的房地产市场中获得了很大的收益而不是在悉尼的“快速”成长的市场中获益，又一方面又要打压比目前的上海还要火热的北京地产的投资，是很难让人信服的。

[ 本帖最后由 fpeking 于 17-10-2007 10:32 编辑 ]

fpeking

原帖由 Consultant 于 16-10-2007 10:59 发表

                               
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两位老大，暂请停止争论吧，其实争来争去，又有何意义呢？
算是给兄弟我个面子吧，谢了先~

我有个问题，
如果买房子自住，则对于salary structure有一定影响，
例如公司一年给我3万4万的钱用在住房上，但是如果购房后公司则不能免税的付这笔钱，
如果再把这笔钱加到工资里，会导致被扣去更多的税。
这种情况下买房如果没有很好的增长率，是否就不合适？

不列举太具体的数字了。

wil

如果买的投资房是不是既可以继续享受住房补助，又可以在退税上得到好处？还可以坐一下capital gain的大船？

jade_qiu

Guys, thought it'd be good to share a few things here.

Just met with a financial planner and got my head around comparing property market to the share market as different investment options. He suggested the following criteria:
1. diversity
2. income and growth
3. tax effective
4. flexibility
5. low risk

For shares:
1. diversity: Invest in domestic and international shares, in different sectors, and make sure some money in fix return and bonds as well to cover down times in shares

2. Income and growth: He suggested they aim for 10-12% annual return. I have to say it's much lower than I thought shares could do, but he said you've got to cover up and down times and on average they aim for 10-12%. He is a salary based financial planner, not commision based and he's been in the market for more than 9 years so is quite experienced. He is conservative enough to make sure you won't lose your capital, but on the other hand it means you might not be able to hope on high short term gains.

3. Tax effective: Aim for highly franked income on shares to avoid tax

4. Flexibility: Shares are flexible and quick to sell if you need the funds for something else

5. Low risk: Lower risk can be achieved with diversity, well, diversity in both high and low risk shares.

Also, we spoke about borrowing money to invest in shares. When you have enough equity in property, you can borrow up to 80% of the property value with a property equity loan. When you don't have much equity in property to get property equity loan, you can get margin loan. With margin loan, he suggested the safe ratio is 1:2, which means for every dollar you put in, you borrow 2 dollars. However a lot of people borrow more than this, up to 1:5. When the share market dropps signicantly suddenly, the bank may call to ask for the difference of the money you borrow and the market value of the shares and this is the risk associated with borrowing money to trade in shares. And you normally have 1-2 days to meet the margin call (to pay the bank!). It all sounds very scary to me, but he recons 1:2 is quite safe. Don't do 1:5!


For property (this is all my opinion, because he didn't like the current property market in Australia coz he thinks it's over priced...):

1. diversity: we can't do much with property in diversity I think if we are buying residential properties one by one. Maybe could try buy every one in different cities/locations.

2. income and growth: depending on the property, you may or may not get positive cash flow. Looking at long term growth, I'm aiming on 7-10% annual growth. If I'm lucky, I might get 10-15%...

3. tax effective: negative gearing property can be quite tax effective

4. flexibility: with property, flexibility is not easy to achieve. You need time to sell and settle property.

5. low risk: following on the cycle theory, buying when the market is going up but has not reach the peak should have lower risk than on the other side of the cycle.

Regarding borrowing money to invest in property, you can get a loan up to 95% quite easily if you’ve got solid salary and rental income. If lucky, you can get even more than that. And, as long as your repayments are up to date, you won’t get any threatening call from the bank like the margin calls. And the good thing with investment property is that, when the value goes down, the rent normally goes up so it’s better for your cash flow even if the value goes down. In the long term, the value will still go up, although maybe not as much as shared but on average should be able to get 7-10% annual growth.


After comparing the two, I think I’m still more passionate in the property market.

Firstly I can borrow more money safely to invest in Property. And as such, the growth base in property will be much larger than shares with the same amount of money I put in. For example, if I invest $15k, I can borrow $300k to buy an investment property. Whereas, if I invest $15k, I can only borrow $30k if I want to minimise the possibility of banks making margin calls during share down times. Keeping this in mind, even if the share market gives me a high 20% return (the financial planner said they only aim for 10-12% p.a.), I only get 9k return p.a. However in the property market, even if I’ve got bad luck and only get 5% return (I’m aiming the historical 7-10% return here), I still get 15.75k return p.a.  Of course there are interests to cover, with property the rents and tax deductions can cover most of it so there aren’t going to be big interest expenses to worry about. With shares, I heard they can be negatively geared as well so basically the expenses can be covered without affecting the net return figure.

Not sure if I’ve missed anything here, but my calculation shows that with the same $15k up front money I put in, I get $9k for shares and $15.75k for property. And what happens if I use 10% return for both? I will get even more for property and less for shares. Of course there are many factors that will have impact on the percentages here, and I’m very conservative as you can see, so I use 20% for shares and 5% for property to compare… The result still says property is a better investment (only if flexibility wouldn’t be a big deal for you).


All of these figures are for the Australian market. I’m very interested in the Chinese market too but I’m not physically there to handle the investments. And I guess I need to study the Chinese market before I do anything and that needs time and a lot more effort than what I’ve already known about the Australian market. If you are considering investing in Australia, then the above may be useful for you. Cheers.

jade_qiu

Jeff,

I've been watching this for a while, but didn't have time to left you any message


I think we've had this discussion many times before. You think that space is where the property growth will be, and I still think land gets more growth so I'm into houses more than apartments...

Anyway, if any one is interested in units/apartments, I think this might be a good one. Brand new 2 bedroom units in Parramatta selling under $350k (can't remember what the agent said, but it's something like this, quite cheap!) off the plan. The design of these units allows you to split it into 1 one bedroom unit and 1 studio so you can get more rents by spliting them, or live in one and rent the other. The strata is low something like $300 per quarter because there's no swimming pool or things like that. Brand new so the depreciation will be quite high for tax deduction.

Another good one I've heard is in China, Huangshan. But you've got to believe that it will go up to buy it. Otherwise, don't. The rental return is about 8% they said. You get a 3 bedroom unit which can be split into 1 two bedroom and 1 one bedroom/studio. They are selling at around $100k I think, can't remember exactly. But it's in China, and there are issues with loans, taxes etc that I have no idea about.

Then I have to introduce the one I've committed to buy. It's a land+house package, under $300k, in Melbourne. Stamp duty is only $2200 because it's calculated on the land only. Vendor pays the interest during construction of the house. Once completed, there are 2 years 5% rental guarantee (they pay 5% p.a. if you can't rent it out, or the difference to make it 5% p.a. if your rent is lower than this). It's got land, which I believe will have much higher capital gain than units/apartments. And the rental is not bad, 5%. Depreciation is not bad too, looking at around $5000 per year over a long time (of course wouldn't be comparable to brand new apartments on this, but still, $5k is not bad I think).

The agent said the difference in houses compared to apartments is that, the depreciation is more on the construction of the house so it's lower but over a longer time 40 years and it doesn't decrease that much over time. Whereas apartments have depreciation of much higher amounts in the first 7 years or so then much lower after this time because the appliances can only be claimed at the beginning few years and then the construction only.


I like property investments and I've been looking and searching for a long time. So far I haven't committed in apartments yet, because I'm not so sure about the capital gain of brand new apartments. Looking at the apartments that are 7-10 years old in Rockdale and Hurstville (where I've lived), have they gone up by 100% yet? I'm so in doubt.

Jeff, I agree that an average priced old apartment (that has only the structure to depreciate!) will go up when the market goes up, but what about brand new apartments that are actually much higher than the average price and are about to depreciate by a lot in the next 7-10 years? I actually think they are there for tax deductions and rental income much more than anything else like capital gain.

Consultant

原帖由 fpeking 于 17-10-2007 10:38 发表

                               
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我有个问题，
如果买房子自住，则对于salary structure有一定影响，
例如公司一年给我3万4万的钱用在住房上，但是如果购房后公司则不能免税的付这笔钱，
如果再把这笔钱加到工资里，会导致被扣去更多的 ...

那您是不是买了投资房，就不会有影响呢？
或者说您把您的自住房转成投资房，然后自己住进去，是否可以呢？

Consultant

原帖由 jade_qiu 于 17-10-2007 16:46 发表

                               
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Guys, thought it'd be good to share a few things here.

Just met with a financial planner and got my head around comparing property market to the share market as different investment options. H ...

恩，写了这么多，鼓鼓掌先，大概其明白不是给我拍转呢，哈哈。

wil

真能写啊。。。。

第一个关于股票和房产的分析，肯定会有人说，现在澳洲股票已经到了一个很高点，更多的人会去国内炒股票，那里的利益绝对不只10%-12%，当然是在赢利的情况下。其实你说的这里只有10%-12%我也不太信，好像基金表现都比这个要好。但是无所谓，我并不是股市投资者。

house是好，可是很贵，养着更贵。不过300k的house很难找啊，即使是在mel。

请问你买mel的房子亲自去看了么？能讲一下不同城市大概怎样交易？

jade_qiu

对呀, 我也觉得股票10-12%很低, 不过他是NAB的职业Financial Planner, 而且NAB网站上看才8%更低, 我搞不清楚怎么回事, 但是他们挺保守的, 所以才敢说至少能保底不会血本无归, 我自己不敢投资股票, 也只好找些表现好的人代劳.

300K 的house是很难找, 所以当我找到就非常感兴趣. 没有亲自去看, 因为没时间, 但是以前经历过大片开发新地和建房的事情, 不过是在Perth. Melb 这个项目很类似, 所以我也有信心. 不同的是现在卖的是 Package, 房子花园装修全包, 省事, 而且还包出租, 所以就要下来了. 去银行打单的时候, 本来没想问NAB借, 因为上次他们效率很低拖我们时间, 不过他们硬拉我去谈. 我说要95%连Mortgage Insurance一起借, 还有如果他们会不批的话我就不交申请表, 他们算了一下回头还说免申请费, 所以可能还是问NAB借... 其实新房子没有什么养的费用啊, 而且house不存在share其它人家或者电梯泳池之类的公共的修理费.

不同城市交易大同小异, 关键还是看合同条款. 有subject to finance我觉得是最好, finance下不来一分钱损失都没有; 还有一种在新洲是给cooling off period, 如果finance在cooling off其间有结果还好点, 如果拖到cooling off以后才说不行就比较麻烦; 其他还有给holding fee的, 类似cooling off, 但是holding fee有可能是refundable, 而cooling off至少损失2.5%如果最后不能成交的话. 很多时候合同都是卖方已经定好的, 如果有疑问最好请律师看过再签.

jade_qiu

问一下拍砖什么意思?

Consultant

原帖由 jade_qiu 于 17-10-2007 17:21 发表

                               
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Jeff,

I've been watching this for a while, but didn't have time to left you any message


I think we've had this discussion many times before. You think that space is where the property ...

呵呵，其实不光是您对地情有独钟，大部分的华人都是如此，认为只有地才能升值。
对于这个问题我是这么考虑的，首先没有人否认土地是一定会增值的，但究竟它为什么值钱呢? 举个例子chastwood，burwood，liverpool，orange,各有一个700平米的house。为什么面积一样的土地，价位会相差那么多呢？

其次我们再看，大家都说这个区在涨，那个state在升，所有人的根据是从哪里来的呢？我想无非就是报纸上，网站上，甚至agent的一些报告。而他们又是凭什么分析这个问题的呢？那是因为有人买卖，在价位上有了实现，他们才可以说，这个地区涨了，那个state升了。我想这个不会有任何疑问吧？也就是说一个地区的升值前提是必须有买卖的产生，在价位上才能有真正的实现。没有理由我说我这个房子值600k，到市场上却发现400k都无人问津，那我这个600k的概念又从何而来呢？

最后我们来看买卖的问题，我们考虑两个方面，自住房和投资房。如果您去买自住房，那么这要考虑的因素就多了，毕竟每个人的想法和出发点是不同的，可能要考虑交通，购物，就业，就医，就读等等问题，当然还有价位。但是有一点是肯定的，就是那些价位偏低，位置相对较好的地区会有更多的人考虑。也就是说如果存在这样一个区通过发展，尽可能的满足了大家自主要求的话，就会产生更多的买卖，同时导致了这个地区价格的上升。那么这些买自住房的人都是要买house的么？我想不尽然，据我所知，越来越的local年轻人更喜欢住在相对方便的unit/apt中。也就是说，在我们假定的这个区，uint和house都是产生了买卖的，那么没有理由house升而unit/apt不升，他们升幅的百分比应该大体相同的，只不过house的base比较大，看起来升的要多一些。

我们再看投资房的情况，如果您做投资首要的选择是什么呢？ 我想都会选capital gain了。那么我们如何判断一个地区的潜在发展潜力呢？是根据个人的臆测么？是根据朋友们的讨论结果么？是听从报纸广告的建议么？还是根据一个地区未来的发展变化呢？虽然不太全面，但我想应该是最后一个吧。那么如果有一个地区，政府投入了大量的人力物力去开发，专业的投资人士，或者听从了各大中介介绍的投资人士，纷纷进入该区的时候，您觉得这个区的价位会不会上扬呢？（当然我想有人会认为这是泡沫，迟早要消退的， 可是10多年前，很多人还认为leichhard, drummoyne, chatswood也是泡沫呢，他们消退了么？）如果您认为该区的价格是会上升的，那么对于投资者来讲，是选择unit/apt还是house呢？我想这也是见仁见智的，但无论怎讲，我相信unit/apt在这部分人中是有一定比例的，也就是说在价位上unit/apt也是会上涨的。

那么到底这个地区产生大量买卖而导致市场价位上扬的原因是什么呢？个人认为是由于这个物业所处地区的环景和变化，而不一定只是局限于物业所占的土地上。

那么我们再看看您说的新房不涨的问题。您在这里产生了一个很大的误区，这也是很多人经常遇到的。我们所说的7-10年double value是在一个整个悉尼的median price，我相信您所提的一些地区的新房没有100%的净增值，但相信您也知道有些区的unit/apt涨了150%。那么这些地区为什么会有那150%增值呢？我想上面我也提到了。另外我们所提出的投资理念是要balance 租金回报，净增值比率，以及他的风险的，这个世界上本来就没有一个头资产品是占全这三个方面的。

对于您melbone的项目，我没有了解，也不敢多说。以上纯属个人意见，欢迎大家一起讨论阿

Consultant

原帖由 jade_qiu 于 17-10-2007 19:04 发表

                               
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对呀, 我也觉得股票10-12%很低, 不过他是NAB的职业Financial Planner, 而且NAB网站上看才8%更低, 我搞不清楚怎么回事, 但是他们挺保守的, 所以才敢说至少能保底不会血本无归, 我自己不敢投资股票, 也只好找些表 ...

subject finace至少在我们这边是基础中的基础，没有这个是不谈的，尤其现在贷款那么紧张。赫赫

Consultant

原帖由 jade_qiu 于 17-10-2007 19:06 发表

                               
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问一下拍砖什么意思?

据我了解就是：弟兄们给我使劲砸他阿！！

fpeking

原帖由 Consultant 于 17-10-2007 17:51 发表

                               
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那您是不是买了投资房，就不会有影响呢？
或者说您把您的自住房转成投资房，然后自己住进去，是否可以呢？

这就是我不明白的地方了。之所以可以免税，是因为我没有房子在这里，但是一旦有了投资房，它也是房子啊。
第二个办法貌似是在逃税)不是避税。

wil

为什么没有房子你就可以免税？而且你还有住房补助之类的东西，因为你的情况好象比较特殊，所以没法说清楚

spirit1

关于MEL的30W的PACKAGE的开发区,我是亲自去看过的.应该在MEL的西边.从地理位置来说,离市中心大概20多分钟的车程,是个理想距离.不过最后我是没买.只不过有以下一些考虑:
1.最重要的原因是这里没有大的市政计划,除了开车以外的公共交通非常不方便,而MEL30年的规划里面对这里没有很具体的工程项目,这是个比较大的RISK.虽然从常理上讲,以后有大规模的人口迁移过去,应该会带动一些工程,但是,这只是假设,没有个具体计划,这样的RISK不好TAKE.当然不会否认MEL房产上涨会对它有带动,但是想找超过平均回报的CAPITAL GAIN, 这里不是理想的地方.
2.西边有大量的土地正在被RELEASE,市场供应量会在将来的一段时间里逐步放大,也制约了房价的上涨.
3.西边的地势一马平川,如同细腻周边LIVERPOOL往西的地貌,注定了它缺乏房地产投资最重要的一个因素:UNIQUE. 即在环境地理上特殊性. 所以只能在价格上找到竞争优势,这又是妨碍CAPITAL GAIN的地方.
4.房屋的建造牵扯比较大的精力,尤其是在另外的城市.而建筑公司的价钱,基本只是最低的配置,如果要让居住有舒适性,必然增加很多成本(比如要增加层高,置换地毯,灯具,插座,增加绿化等等).不然在将来卖房子的时候,劣势明显.

当然还有一些其他考虑,打字太累,就不多写了.
要强调一点,我以上的意见,是建立在要获得超过平均的CAPITAL GAIN这一理念基础上的.所以可能和你的侧重点不同,并不是拍砖,因为正好看到你要了解这方面的信息,而我有恰好研究过,因而互相探讨.

spirit1

原帖由 jade_qiu 于 17-10-2007 16:46 发表

                               
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Guys, thought it'd be good to share a few things here.

Just met with a financial planner and got my head around comparing property market to the share market as different investment options. H ...

这个FINANCIAL PLANNER比较谨慎是相当正确的.说明他不是初出茅庐的PLANNER,对投资的认识已经非常深刻了.任何激进的投资方法,到最后都会输得一败涂地.如美国历史上最伟大的股票作手:Jesse Livermore, 在上世纪初叱咤风云,但最后却是以破产告终.而经过多年的投资历练,很多投资老手都认识到了控制风险远比赚钱更重要.没有严格的风险控制机制就去做投资,这跟赌徒没啥两样,最后都会被消灭在市场的波动当中.
巴非特的年投资回报是多少?24%, 而世界上只有一个巴非特.WALL STREET的价值投资的鼻祖GRAHAM也就是老巴的师傅,年投资回报是15%. 所以如果有12%的年回报,已经是很不错的.就如那个PLANNER所说,没人能准确知道股市的波动,很多时候都是赚赔相抵,真正赚钱的就是经济周期了波峰的那几年,到调整和低谷阶段,能保住不亏已经是大师了.
这位PLANNER的保守,正是一个好的投资人应有的态度.是绝对可以信任的.如果都像本论坛某些人给大家的建议,市场在最热的时候,就头脑发热,推出个什么只要今年投资什么房产,明年就能大赚特赚的理论,绝对是逞一时的匹夫之勇,能赚得了一时,可惜吃不了一世.
而实际上,在投资市场里如果连一个对经济一窍不通的人也能搞出个什么赚钱的理论来教育别人的话,那离市场的头部还远吗?

现在回头讲澳洲房地产.
澳洲的房地产在2000年以后不是不疯狂的,而是相当疯狂的,不比国内差多少.如前2年的PERTH,最近的ADELAIDE, MEL差点.这实际上和人口的变化有着密切的关系的.也必将影响着今后房地产价格的走向.从大了说,南澳由于移民政策的倾向,在一段时期内将会达到房地产空前繁荣.房价会逐渐向细腻靠拢.MEL和BRISBANE都是人口净流入城市,也带动房价上涨,尤其是MEL,文化教育上的优势,和居住成本的低廉吸引大量移民(不单指华人移民,包括外省,英国,新西兰等的移民,他们是推动房价的主力军).
而细腻由于前些年房价的上涨及经济发展的落后(BOB CARR搞经济理念相当落后),导致人口净流出,房价走低,尤其是对价格非常敏感的低价房地产区域,和非UNIQUE的区域,下跌明显.在几年内,只能是部分UNIQUE的区域会有较好涨幅.
那么哪些是UNIQUE的区域呢.见仁见智了.我还是觉得用人口理论比较好.就是哪些地区会有人不惜一切代价想要迁入的地区,而供应量却没有显著增加的地方,那么这个区域就是今后CAPITAL GAIN绝佳地点.大家寻这个思路找找看,集思广益.

结论,房产投资主要的2个方面:
即1.以获得租金回报为主
2.以获得CAPITAL GAIN为主
我侧重于CAPITAL GAIN(具体原因有时间在探讨). 寻找人口将要显著增加,但是房产供应却相对不足的地方,是房产投资能获得超额回报的法则.

希望对大家有借鉴作用.

fpeking

我实在不准备和你叫劲下去了，一次一次的人身攻击除了显示你的narrow-mind以外看不出来任何的教养。
你所说的劫持银行无非都是任志强言论的一点点而已，还要显示自己的高深莫测。
还是那句话，04年831以后是北京房地产开始走向最火热的开始，甚至远远超过了01年申奥成功以后。

实在不能忍这种谩骂型的了，一次一次的想给你留一点面子。最后再说一句不好听的，我在清华学习经济管理的时候，朱熔基正是当院长的前几年，一个投资失败的房地产公司的经理，还总是张狂的不知道自己姓什么甚至根本什么都听不进去，无怪乎投资失败以后连吃口肉买张票都要算计，却要每次嘴硬的要教训每个人为看客，这就是“经济学”“投资学”大师的超级理论修养。。。。。。

连别人的观点都看不懂还不停的开炮只为了掩饰自己的内心和显示自己的狭隘以外，还有什么？

放弃和你这样象个小妇人一样含沙射影却不敢光明磊落的争执。

你自愿意说什么，就去说去吧。。。。。

fpeking

原帖由 wil 于 17-10-2007 21:25 发表

                               
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为什么没有房子你就可以免税？而且你还有住房补助之类的东西，因为你的情况好象比较特殊，所以没法说清楚

我有3／4万的Leaving Away From Home Allowance,
这个前提条件是必须不能有自己的住房，否则这3／4万又得加到我的税前工资里面，等到扣完税，基本上连渣都不剩了：）

NOTIME

depents on the share, for quite a lot blue chip, like bhp,rio and four big bank u can borrow upto 75%.
BTW, i quote this form my st. george margin lending.

fpeking

原帖由 Consultant 于 16-10-2007 10:59 发表

                               
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两位老大，暂请停止争论吧，其实争来争去，又有何意义呢？
算是给兄弟我个面子吧，谢了先~

我放弃，就算争执，我也会选择光明正大／心胸宽广的男子汉作为对手。 ：）

另外再说一下，据我所知，北京的房市非常频繁的发生这样的情况：
已经交了定金，但是贷款还在办理之中，结果就在这一两个月中间房价发生了变化，房东毁约，代价是双倍返还的，因为过去的短短的一段时间内房价的上涨远远超过了作返还的定金。
虽然法庭相见可以冻结该房产，但却不一定是双输罢了。

没有人相信一个地区的房地产是会永远疯狂下去的。

jade_qiu

For Sydney the 30 year plan can be found here:
http://www.metrostrategy.nsw.gov ... =1&contentId=-1

For Melbourne the 30 year plan can be found here:
http://www.dse.vic.gov.au/melbou ... ion/02_summary.html

Also for Melbourne, there is a government site detailing the 5 major growth area (including Wyndham where I bought):
http://www.gaa.vic.gov.au/Default.aspx?PageID=115
http://www.gaa.vic.gov.au/Wyndham

The suburb profile of Wyndham on domain:
http://www.domain.com.au/public/ ... =research#mapanchor

The annual median growth % is also shown here. Even in the down time, the growth has not dropped below 0%. That's why I don't think there will be too much risk here.

It's cheap under $300k, in a fast growing area where the state government's fund is going and where the population is growing fast in the next 30 years plan.

For the construction, I personally think over $180k to build a Brick V 3 bedroom 2 bathroom double garage house is not cheap, although I know the prices has gone up in the building industry... (Last time it was under $200k to build a double brick 2 story 6 bedroom 3 bathroom double garage house, but in 2001 )

jade_qiu

原帖由 Consultant 于 17-10-2007 07:20 PM 发表

                               
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据我了解就是：弟兄们给我使劲砸他阿！！

Oh! I didn't mean it at all. We just have different opinions and we take different approches...

jade_qiu

Jeff, thanks for refering the article in domain. I realised I've already read it before but forgot...

http://www.domain.com.au/Public/ ... 0growth%20prospects

"
At seven o'clock, residential property in Sydney was placed as having the most outstanding potential for growth, followed by Melbourne residential at nine o'clock.
"


Very good news and that was one reason why I bought in Sydney. then there is this sentence:


"
Mr Webster warned that the Sydney market is "very segmented".

"There are large chunks of the Sydney property market that won't go up, but there are other parts, more at the higher end, that will," he said.
"


This is something we already knew anyway. Some millions dollar worth houses went up no matter how bad the overall market was performing. I'm very careful here because I don't want to get one of the large chunks that won't go up... I believe Sydney will go up, but only in some already not cheap areas, not all... Even with my house, I'm looking at long term 7-10 years for it to go up, not within the next 2-3 years, because with the little money I have I could only afford this much...

I was at one stage looking at Meadowbank's apts, but was still not brave enough to buy. Then I heard the bad news of two people who bought. Hope you do well in yours, to give me some courage and confidence in apts...

Consultant

原帖由 fpeking 于 17-10-2007 21:21 发表

                               
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这就是我不明白的地方了。之所以可以免税，是因为我没有房子在这里，但是一旦有了投资房，它也是房子啊。
第二个办法貌似是在逃税)不是避税。

之所以投资房可以免税是因为，澳洲政府认为您为他人提供了生活空间，为政府做出了贡献，所以您在投资房上面的亏损是可以用来抵税的。

Consultant

原帖由 fpeking 于 18-10-2007 09:39 发表

                               
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我有3／4万的Leaving Away From Home Allowance,
这个前提条件是必须不能有自己的住房，否则这3／4万又得加到我的税前工资里面，等到扣完税，基本上连渣都不剩了：）

所以我觉得给您介绍的那个方法还是行之有效的。

Consultant

原帖由 jade_qiu 于 18-10-2007 14:09 发表

                               
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Oh! I didn't mean it at all. We just have different opinions and we take different approches...

所以我说您并没有给我拍砖阿，呵呵

Consultant

原帖由 jade_qiu 于 18-10-2007 14:30 发表

                               
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Jeff, thanks for refering the article in domain. I realised I've already read it before but forgot...

http://www.domain.com.au/Public/ ... alIndex&headlin ...

哈哈，尽力而为，毕竟每个人都有自己的看法，自己不同的投资理念，而且在投资上本来也没有绝对的正确。最重要的是大家有钱赚，不是么，呵呵。